Aces vs. Lynx Odds, Picks, Predictions: WNBA Betting Preview (July 22)
Chris Marion/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Kelsey Plum #10 high fives A’ja Wilson #22 and Jackie Young #0.
Aces vs. Lynx Odds
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -105 | 170.5 -106 / -114 | -1500 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -115 | 170.5 -106 / -114 | +790 |
The Las Vegas Aces and Minnesota Lynx face off in the second half of an ESPN Saturday WNBA doubleheader.
The Aces continue to roll the rest of the league, with a 20-2 record and a +19.1 net rating. The Lynx, meanwhile, are solidly in seventh place — a playoff spot in the WNBA — but there are signs that they might be a bit overrated.
The Aces opened as 15-point road favorites and have actually taken money, which just speaks to how absurd this team is. Luckily for us, there are plenty of different markets to play around in to still find an edge on a game where the straight spread is somewhat mind-melting.
Here's a look at where I'm finding a value betting prediction in Saturday's Aces vs. Lynx preview.
Las Vegas Aces
One way I like to target games with this big of a spread is to look into some of the more niche markets, like the quarter spread and over/unders.
So far this season, the Aces have absolutely housed their opponents in the second quarter, with an offensive rating of 117.4 and a defensive rating of 91.2 for a net rating of 26.2 that easily leads the league.
On the flip side of the coin, the Lynx have been absolutely dreadful in the second quarter, with an offensive rating of 90.4 (!) and a defensive rating of 106.8 for a net rating of -16.4 that ranks dead last in the league.
Relying on quarter data can sometimes be shaky, but when the two teams are at these extremes, I feel confident laying the number, even though it'll likely open around 4.5 points — a mighty high number for a single-quarter spread.
Minnesota Lynx
The other part of fading the Lynx that's appealing is that their record (10-12) flatters them. Yes, they do have 10 wins, but only one of those 10 have come over a team with a winning record, and that was back on June 3 over the Mystics.
The other nine wins are entirely against the dregs of the league, and these Aces are obviously not the dregs of the league.
In fact, the two teams have already faced off three times this season, with this being the fourth and final time they play. The previous three matchups have seen the Aces win by: 21, 31 and 24.
The Aces won all three second quarters, as well, with two covering this likely 4.5-point spread.
Aces-Lynx Pick
One other angle to keep an eye on is the Aces' assists. With Candace Parker out, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young have been picking up more of the playmaking slack. However, the market has adjusted for that, with each individual player prop having already moved since being posted.
If you're the same-game parlay type, centering it around assists from those two is a decent look. I'd add Lindsay Allen's assists prop, too, which also came out too low, given that she's averaging 6.1 assists over her last 11 games.
Overall, the best bet is to target the second quarter. I lean towards the Aces on the full-game spread even at 15.5, but targeting the second quarter (which should be around 4.5) is the pick given the massive disparity between the net ratings of these two teams in that particular quarter.
Pick: Aces Second Quarter Spread -4.5
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