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WNBA All-Star Game Total Finishes Under Even After Historic Line Movement

WNBA All-Star Game Total Finishes Under Even After Historic Line Movement article feature image

(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) Pictured: Sue Bird, Diana Taurasi.

Team USA was beaten by a group of WNBA All-Stars that weren’t selected for the national team, 93-85. That total of 178 points came in more than 70 points under a total of about 250 that most sportsbooks opened with.

Matthew Metcalf, oddsmaker at Circa Sports, had this to say about the opening number:

this may be semantics but i feel like it's important to distinguish between an error and a bad number. no mistake was made here, i made a horrific number, hung it and took bets, wasn't the first one and won't be the last. however historically it may be the worst. circa sports.

— Matthew Metcalf (@MMpact) July 14, 2021

Original Post:

Why the WNBA All-Stars vs. Team USA Total Moved Nearly 60 Points

A matchup between the U.S. women’s national basketball team and a group of WNBA All-Stars that weren’t selected for Team USA opened with an over/under of about 250 points at most sportsbooks.

That total dropped about 60 points on Wednesday afternoon.

At BetMGM, the total opened at 251.5 and dropped to as low as 191.5. At PointsBet, the total started at 247.5 and will re-open at around 192, the sportsbook told The Action Network.

Those considerable alterations aren’t specific to the two aforementioned books, though. It’s a market-wide correction spurred on by a collective oversight.

The global market had set the odds as if this matchup was like any other All-Star game, which are typically rife with aloof defense and trick plays.

Total Points Scored In Previous All-Star Games

Year Total Points
2019 255
2018 231
2017 251
2016 (skipped due to Olympics)
2015 229
2014 249

But, this year’s contest won’t be anything close to an ordinary All-Star game, PointsBet spokesman Patrick Eichner said.

“It’s Team USA against the Olympic snubs essentially, so it’s going to be intense and very real,” Eichner said.

Wednesday’s game will be Team USA’s first exhibition together since its roster was finalized. It will also be perhaps the team’s toughest test of the summer — even more so than any Olympic game will provide.

While the U.S. are -190 favorites against the WNBA All-Stars, they are -8000 favorites for their opening group stage game against Nigeria and are -1100 to repeat as gold medalists.

The team hasn’t lost a game at the Olympics since 1992.

So, needless to say, they’ll be trying — especially on the defensive end.

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For the WNBA All-Stars, there’s a mental edge that makes this game different.

These are players that were overlooked by Team USA — players that include six-time All-Star Candace Parker and all-WNBA forward Jonquel Jones.

The WNBA All-Star team is stacked, too, and they’ll be fighting with chips on their shoulders.

For reference, the highest scoring team in the WNBA this season are the Las Vegas Aces, which average 90.7 points per game. The next best team are the Seattle Storm, which average 86.4 points per game. That’s a total of 177.1 points if the two top-scoring teams faced off against each other.

Another example: The last time an exhibition like this took place was in 2004, when a U.S. team led by Lisa Leslie, Tina Thompson and Sheryl Swoopes faced off against a group of WNBA All-Stars not selected for the national team.

The final score for that game was 74-58 — a total of 132 points.

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