WNBA Best Bets: Expert Picks, Player Prop, Predictions (Tuesday, May 21)

WNBA Best Bets: Expert Picks, Player Prop, Predictions (Tuesday, May 21) article feature image

Arike Ogunbowale #24 of the Dallas Wings reacts after a play against the Chicago Sky at the College Park Center on May 15, 2024 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

With a trio of games on the WNBA schedule, we take a dive into Tuesday's slate with our experts being heavy on one matchup in particular. Between the Phoenix Mercury facing the Las Vegas Aces and the Washington Mystics taking on the Los Angeles Sparks, there's nothing short of entertainment on League Pass tonight.

But it's the Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream showdown that's catching the eyes of a couple of our experts the most. From a spread pick to a player prop, lets see what our experts best bets and predictions for Tuesday, May 21 in our WNBA best bets and expert picks for today.

WNBA Best Bets Today | Tuesday, May 21

GameTime (ET)Pick
7:30 p.m.
7:30 p.m.
10 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our WNBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Wings vs. Dream

Tuesday, May 21
7:30 p.m. ET
League Pass
Dream -5

By Jim Turvey

This pick is more of a fade of Dallas than a bet on Atlanta. The Wings are a team I very much like when healthy–they just are far from it.

Dallas started the season with Satou Sabally, arguably their best player, who will be out through the Olympic break. Then, in their first game of the season, they lost Natasha Howard, another of their Big Three, to a foot injury that will keep her out 3-6 weeks.

The result wasn't pretty. In their first game without those two, they lost–at home–to the Chicago Sky, a team projected as a bottom three team coming into the season. Even more notable was how: Arike had 28 field goal attempts (and 11 free throw attempts) and sat just nine seconds all game. The non-Arike Wings tallied a total of 38 points. Neither side of that equation is good for Dallas.

I'm going to be looking to fade Dallas as long as the market will let me, and I would bet this to Dream -6.5.

I even like a same-game parlay in which Arike goes for 30 points, but the Dream cover, as the books might see those events as inversely correlated, but I think it's the opposite. The more Arike has to do, the worse for Dallas.

Pick: Dream -5

Wings vs. Dream

Tuesday, May 21
7:30 p.m. ET
League Pass
Arike Ogunbowale 25+ Points (-102)

By Dano Mataya

A injury-riddled Dallas team travels to Atlanta to face the Dream in their home opener. Now missing two starters from last year's squad in Satou Sabally (18.6 PPG) and Natasha Howard (16.5 PPG), the workload only increases for Arike Ogunbowale. After having a usage rate of 26.8% in game 1, Arike's usage rate in the second matchup against the Chicago Sky without Natasha Howard jumped to 36.3% in her 39 minutes of play on her way to a 35 point performance.

Arike is the only player on the Wings who can create her own shot, which explains the 28 shot attempts. Over the last 13 games dating back to the 2022 season where Arike had a usage rate above 30%, she has averaged 30.3 points, and cleared 25 points in each instance. The volume will be there against a below-average defense from Atlanta. FanDuel has better odds when selecting 25+ points rather than her over 24.5.

Pick: Arike Ogunbowale 25+ Points (-102)

Mystics vs. Sparks

Tuesday, May 21
10 p.m. ET
League Pass
Over 159.5 points

By Michael Arinze

The Sparks have the fifth-youngest team in the W, and they’re trying to take advantage of their youth by playing a more uptempo style.

Los Angeles, in a clear demonstration of their commitment to a faster game, has seen a notable increase in their possessions per 40 minutes, rising from an average of 80.26 last year to 82.5 this season.

One of the team’s goals under head coach Curt Miller is to play with more pace. He also wants his players to have better offensive spacing and be a better perimeter shooting team.

While it’s only a tiny sample size of two games, the Sparks are averaging 8.5 3-point field goals while shooting 37.8%.

The addition of Kia Nurse strengthens the Sparks from beyond the arc, as she shot at least 35% on 3-pointers in her previous two seasons.

This year, the six-year veteran is shooting 46.2% while averaging 6.5 attempts.

First-year player Cameron Brink has shown signs of promise as a player willing to stretch the floor for the Sparks.

Brink connected on two of her five 3-pointers this season.

Despite being winless on the year, Miller’s plan is starting to come together nicely, as this Sparks team is undoubtedly one to keep an eye on in terms of totals.

They were competitive against the Aces last time out, scoring 82 points. Look for the Sparks to dictate the pace on Tuesday night against a Mystics team that prioritizes perimeter shooting.

Washington ranks in the top half of the league in 3-point field goals (9.3), attempts (26.7) and shooting percentage (35%).

Thus, given the profile of these teams, we should be in store for a high-scoring contest, with this game going the Caesars' total of 159.5 points.

Pick: Over 159.5 points

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