Sunday WNBA Odds, Picks and Predictions: Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun & Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx (Sept. 27)
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: A’ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces.
- The WNBA playoffs take center stage Sunday, with two semifinal-round games on the card.
- Michael Arinze breaks it all down and gives his pick.
What a fascinating Sunday this will be in WNBA postseason action. Both the Connecticut Sun and Seattle Storm are in position to punch their respective tickets to meet in the WNBA finals.
Connecticut holds a 2-1 lead over the top-seeded Las Vegas Aces, while the second seeded Seattle Storm will try for the sweep over the Minnesota Lynx.
It’s incredible to think this Connecticut team, which started 0-5 this season, is just a win away from reaching the finals. On the other side, Seattle will be looking for its second trip to the finals in three years after its two stars — Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart — missed all of the 2019 season due to injury.
The intensity is certainly amping up as every game the rest of the way is essentially an elimination game. Here are some quick hits on how the bookmakers are approaching the totals:
Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun Betting Odds
|Aces Odds||-4.5 [Bet Now]|
|Sun Odds||+4.5 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||159.5 (-110/-110) [Bet Now]|
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
The bookmakers are finally making the adjustment to the total in this series. After opening each game in this series at around 163, we get our first total opening below 160 at 158.5. So what’s changed?
Well these teams are actually very similar in that both like to do the bulk of their scoring from inside. Las Vegas has also struggled mightily from beyond the arc and that actually makes it easier for the Sun to stay close to it on the scoreboard.
|Connecticut 3-point %||Las Vegas 3-point %|
|Game 1||8/19 (42.1%)||1/14 (7.1%)|
|Game 2||6/20 (30.0%)||0-4 (0.0%)|
|Game 3||1/11 (9.1%)||5/14 (35.7%)|
|Total||15/50 (30.0%)||6/32 (18.75%)|
It’s not a surprise both teams will look to play to their strengths when it matters most. And that means getting the ball to A’ja Wilson on the inside if you’re the Aces and continuing to feed Alyssa Thomas on the low blocks if you’re the Sun.
One anecdote I’ve picked up watching this series is that there’s not a lot of love lost between the teams as the games have gotten pretty chippy at times.
That lack of fondness means max effort at the defensive end and that’s another thing that can benefit under bettors in this game.
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Betting Odds
|Storm Odds||-8 [Bet Now]|
|Lynx Odds||+8 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||164.5 (-106/-114) [Bet Now]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
The total has actually been more consistent in this series, with bookmakers opening the number for both games around 163.5.
Today’s game opened around the same number, but we’re already seeing some money come in on the over as the current total is as high as 164.5 in some markets. While the Storm have a two-game lead on the Lynx, this series has actually been closer than you’d think.
First, the Storm needed a buzzer-beater to defeat the Lynx in Game 1 and Minnesota’s best player, Napheesa Collier, was reduced to a spectator at times in Game 2 after being in foul trouble for what seemed like the entire game.
|Minnesota Lynx 3-point %||Seattle Storm 3-point %|
|Game 1||14/31 (45.2%)||13/26 (50%)|
|Game 2||13/28 (46.4%)||10-31 (32.3%)|
|Total||27/59 (45.8%)||23/57 (40.4%)|
Minnesota has had to battle the Storm without center Sylvia Fowles, who has been dealing with a calf injury. Fowles is listed as questionable for today, but the Lynx may be hesitant to introduce her this late in the series after the rotation, chemistry and flow have already been established.
The Lynx have been able to keep pace with the Storm by using the three-point shot and even outperformed the Storm from behind the line in their last game.
It’s unlikely if Minnesota can accomplish this if Fowles is inserted back in the lineup.
The Bet: Two-Team 4.5-point teaser (+103) — Aces-Sun (Under 163) / Storm-Lynx (Over 160)