The UEFA Champions League has reached its first true turning point: the knockout phase. With the "league phase" safety net gone, the European giants face high-stakes, two-legged battles for survival. The margin for error has vanished as teams fight to secure a spot in the next round. The road to Budapest is now at its most treacherous.
We have eight games to target on this week's Champions League schedule, and our staff has come up with picks for six of them. Continue reading for our Champions League best bets for March 17 and March 18.
Champions League Best Bets
The club logos in the table below represent each match that our soccer betting staff is targeting from today's games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Match | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 1:45 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our soccer Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Arsenal
Arsenal were priced as the heavy favorites in the first leg against Leverkusen, but barely managed to equalise in the dying seconds of the match. This time at home, we can expect Arteta’s side to be more clinical on both ends of the pitch.
Leverkusen may have found ways to score against Arsenal, but facing them at the Emirates will be a significant challenge. Since the start of the season, the Gunners have played 22 home games, losing just once in the process. Regardless, 13 of those 22 games went over the 2.5-goal line, and 10 saw goals on both ends.
While still one of the best defensive teams in Europe, Arsenal has leaked goals lately, especially in the Champions League. Arteta's team has managed only one clean sheet in their last five matches in this competition. A tight schedule in chasing a quadruple title adds fatigue into the mix, and with their guard potentially down, Leverkusen could again find a goal here.
Pick: Arsenal To Win and Over 2.5 Goals
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Paris Saint-Germain vs. Chelsea
The 5-2 scoreline in the first leg, combined with their trends in Europe, points to another high-scoring affair.
PSG’s Champions League has seen the Parisians average a huge 4.36 goals per 90, the most in the competition. Not only that, but PSG have overseen ‘both teams to score – yes’ in five of six home games in Europe, and nine of 11 overall.
Chelsea are no slouches, either, with a 3.78 average total way over the required three-goal mark for this proposed selection. The Blues require a three-goal margin victory to take this tie to extra time, while a four-goal deficit will win the game inside 90 minutes.
Regardless of game state, Chelsea has seen over 2.5 goals win in seven of nine Champions League matches this term (78%), nearly matching PSG’s 82%.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes and Over 2.5 Goals
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Real Madrid vs. Manchester City
Although progression to the quarter-final stage now looks out of reach, Manchester City should be able to win this game, given the current state of play in the tie. Real Madrid will gladly lose this game by a maximum of two goals – they’ll still go through, with the result in the second leg being of little meaning if progression is secured.
Notably, City have won 18 of 23 home matches this season, which is a remarkable return for a team not quite at their exhilarating best compared to previous campaigns.
With the game state as it is and City needing to score at least three goals, the proposed selection leans into both eventualities. Our internal data projection model, BETSiE, projects a 3.09 goal total, split 1.94 for City and 1.15 for Real Madrid.
Pick: Manchester City To Win & Over 2.5 Goals
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Newcastle United vs. FC Barcelona
Barcelona were lucky to get away with a tie in England. We can expect a drastically better performance at home, but the Blaugranas have been leaking goals in Europe and are likely to offer up chances again.
Newcastle is struggling to find consistency, with crucial wins followed by points drops in matches against the likes of Wolves and Sunderland. Overall, Eddie Howe’s side lacks the depth and individual quality to overcome a team like Barcelona.
Hansli Flick’s side is now enjoying a 16-game winning streak at home, but they’ve conceded at least one goal in nine matches. Meanwhile, Newcastle’s last 13 matches across all competitions have seen both teams score.
Pick: Barcelona To Win and Both Teams to Score – Yes
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Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool
Arne Slot’s side needs to deliver in Europe after their tie with Tottenham on the weekend, but defensive gaps make them good value to see goals on both ends. Liverpool have been among the more profitable teams in the Premier League for the Both teams to score – Yes bet. The Reds have failed to keep a clean sheet in 17 games out of 24 they’ve played at Anfield this season across all competitions.
Meanwhile, Galatasaray has lost the last three away European games. However, with Liverpool’s vulnerabilities now public, expect the Turks to at least score as they look to maintain their lead.
Victor Osimhen has been in top form recently, contributing to at least a goal in nine consecutive games. His assist in the reverse fixture was key in securing a win, so we can expect him to be in the centre of attention again in England.
Pick: Liverpool To Win and Both Teams to Score – Yes
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Atletico Madrid vs. Tottenham
Atletico Madrid doesn’t need to win in order to secure a place in the next round. Diego Simeone’s side come into this game with a three-goal lead, so there is no need for the visitors to chase victory on the night.
However, Tottenham have struggled at home this season, and avoiding relegation is the priority. Igor Tudor's team has won just six of their last 20 home matches across all competitions. Just four of those have ended in a draw. However, during that run, Spurs have scored an average of 1.45 goals per game, and conceded 1.35, highlighting just how close their home matches have been.
Atletico Madrid have played nine away matches across all competitions in 2026, with four of those matches ending in a draw. Over that period, Simeone’s team have scored 1.33 goals per away match, and conceded 1.22.
Pick: Draw
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