We've got a 15-game slate on Tuesday, August 18, starting with Yankees vs Orioles Picks at 6:35 PM ET at Yankee Stadium.
Read on for our 5 MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:35 PM | |
  | 7:10 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 8:05 PM | |
  | 8:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Paul's Yankees vs Orioles Best Bet
By Sean Paul
I view this as a strong pitching matchup.
Carlos Rodon could give the Yankees a solid five or six innings before handing the ball over to a solid bullpen.
Meanwhile, it doesn't take much to hold this Yankees lineup down, and Shane Baz has the stuff to keep them in check.
I like the Under.
Pick: Under 8 (-110 or Better)
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Frank Ammirante's Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Best Bet
I'm taking Diamondbacks TT Under 3.5 in this game.
For one, Ranger Suarez looked back on track in his last turn, allowing one earned run in five innings against the Blue Jays. He went 81 pitches in that game, which was his most since returning from injury on July 26th. We can expect a full workload for this game, meaning there's a chance he can get to six innings.
That's good news for the Red Sox because of their fresh bullpen. Brayan Bello gave them 4 2/3 innings as a long reliever last night, so they didn't have to use any of their high-leverage arms. That means that Aroldis Chapman and Erik Miller are fresh for this game.
On top of that, we're getting favorable pitching weather tonight, with forecasts calling for 75-degree temperatures and 5.9 MPH winds blowing in, according to the Action App.
Given Suarez's impressive underlying metrics (3.59 xERA), I wanted to zero in on his matchup with Arizona, while removing Merrill Kelly from the equation, since he has a 7.13 xERA. That's why I locked in on the D-Backs team total rather than the full game under.
With an improving starter and a fresh bullpen, bet on the Red Sox to keep the D-Backs at bay for this game.
Pick: Diamondbacks TT Under 3.5 (-120 or Better)
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Grant Neiffer's Braves vs Twins Best Bet
This is a fantastic spot, and Ronald Acuna isn't priced like it at all.
Zebby Matthews has been a gas can for righty power this season, allowing a massive 1.85 HR/9.
The weather should be a slight plus for hitting, with wind blowing out at 5 MPH.
Acuna has been having an off year, but he's due for some heavy positive regression.
I make the true odds on this home run prop around +350.
Pick: Ronald Acuna Home Run (+375 or Better)
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Jon Anderson's White Sox vs Cubs Best Bet
By Jon Anderson
Here's what my projection model says for Gausman: 5.2 IP, 5.1 H, 2.5 ER, 5.95 K, 2.1 BB. That's a pretty healthy strikeout projection for him, a bit higher than my season average K projection for Gausman. Murakami and Montgomery are dangerous hitters, but they typically hand over at least a couple of strikeouts.
The Cubs have a good mixture of righties and lefties in their lineup, so they should be able to give the White Sox bullpen a good amount of trouble no matter who's in there. They could also see Erick Fedde for a few innings, which would be a big boost to the Cubs lineup.
I'm riding the Cubs at home, and I'm trusting the model on a good strikeout day from Gausman. The Cubs are the better team in Chicago, and they'll show it tonight.
Pick: Cubs ML (-165 or Better) | Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-180 or Better)
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Collin Whitchurch's Dodgers vs Rockies Best Bet
Editor’s Note: This written best bet is a transcription from today’s episode of Payoff Pitch.
This bet is based on Zerillo’s BARTOLO tool, which gives our PRO subscribers access to all the live data he uses to project MLB games each day.
Zerillo projects the total in this game at around 10.9 runs, giving us a 3.1% edge against the current market price (Under 11.5 at -105).
I think the total is getting boosted because of the Dodgers’ offensive performance last night (11 runs), alongside the low quality of the starting pitchers (Eric Lauer and Ryan Feltner).
That said, this bet is getting a solid weather boost, with the wind blowing in at 10 MPH. Also, there’s the potential for rain and thunderstorms in Denver tonight, which isn’t ideal for hitting conditions, and any rain delay could knock these starters out of the game — more bullpen usage is better for this bet, especially from the Dodgers’ elite relief corps.
Pick: Under 11.5 (-110 or Better)
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