Happy Dinger Tuesday!
Check out my MLB Home Run Picks today for Tuesday, August 18, including Yankees vs Orioles prop predictions at 6:35 PM ET (Yankee Stadium).
MLB Home Run Picks Today
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:35 PM | |
  | 7:10 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 8:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Yankees vs Orioles
I have no idea what the books are doing with Big Meat Pete's odds lately, but I'm not going to argue.
He’s been incredible over the last week, and this isn’t a bad spot.
Carlos Rodon has been great at limiting power this season, but he's due for some heavy negative regression and grades out as an average matchup for righty power.
I make the true odds on this home run prop around +350.
Pick: Pete Alonso Home Run
| | | |
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox
Merrill Kelly is getting old, and at this point in his career, he's not the same pitcher he used to be.
Kelly has been an absolute gas can for lefty power this season, allowing a massive 2.09 HR/9.
This ballpark isn't great for power, but Abreu has been in great form recently, with 12 bombs since the beginning of July.
I make the true odds on this home run prop around +400.
Pick: Wilyer Abreu Home Run
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Braves vs Twins
This is a fantastic spot, and Ronald Acuna isn't priced like it at all.
Zebby Matthews has been a gas can for righty power this season, allowing a massive 1.85 HR/9.
The weather should be a slight plus for hitting, with wind blowing out at 5 MPH.
Acuna has been having an off year, but he's due for some heavy positive regression.
I make the true odds on this home run prop around +350.
Pick: Ronald Acuna Home Run
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White Sox vs Cubs
PCA has been on a tear recently, and these odds are far too high.
Erick Fedde should be the long reliever tonight, and he has been a gas can for power this season. While he's been much worse against righties, he still grades out as a great matchup for lefty power.
The weather should be great for hitting at Wrigley, with the wind blowing out at 9 MPH, and while there is a chance of a delay or postponement, I'm willing to risk it at these odds.
I make the true odds on this home run prop around +300.
Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run
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