Premier League Odds, Predictions | Everton vs Bournemouth Pick
Naomi Baker/Getty. Pictured: Sean Dyche.
Everton vs Bournemouth Odds
Everton Odds | -175 |
Bournemouth Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-138 / +110) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-125 / -106) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here | |
A massive match in the final day of the Premier League season takes place at Goodison Park, with Everton trying to stave off relegation against Bournemouth.
It's pretty simple for Everton – a win and they've avoided relegation. A loss means they need both Leicester and Leeds to draw or lose in their matches. A draw, well, they would need Leicester to lose, as the Foxes have the goal differential tiebreaker over them. It's dark times on Merseyside because Everton are one of the few teams that haven't been relegated from the top flight of English football in 72 years.
Bournemouth have already secured safety from relegation and have absolutely nothing to play for in this match. The Cherries have been one of the more impressive teams in the Premier League after the World Cup break given their ascension from the bottom of the table. Who knows how motivated they are for this match, but on paper it is a good matchup for them.
Everton Looking to Secure Safety Once More
Everton are an offensive force under Sean Dyche, but they have been even better since Dominic Calvert-Lewin returned from injury. In the last five matches since he’s been back in the lineup, Everton have created 10.3 xG because he’s really the perfect striker for Dyche’s system.
Dyche is one of the most direct managers you will find in terms of his tactics. Once Everton win the ball they like to play long balls up to the striker and try hit opponents in transitional opportunities, Calvert-Lewin is fantastic at both holding up the ball and also winning aerial duals, while also being around a 0.50 xG per 90 minute striker. The problem is he is going to miss this match due to injury, so I don't know what Everton are going to do at the striker position.
The manager has also transformed Everton into a high pressing team, trying to disrupt their opponents' build up play. Since he’s taken over, Everton’s PPDA is down to 12.2 from the 15.8 under Lampard and the Toffees are up to eighth in high turnovers.
However, this type of high pressing style has come at cost to Everton. Under Lampard they were one of the worst transition defenses in the Premier League and that hasn’t gotten any better under Dyche. Since he took over on February 4th, Everton are allowing 2 xG per match during that time frame and are now dead last in the Premier League in npxG allowed. So, facing a good transitional team like Bournemouth when you have to play aggressive and go for a win is not the best scenario.
Bournemouth Come in With Uncertain Motivation
I have no idea how much Bournemouth are going to care about this match or if they want to play spoiler. One of the hardest things to do in handicapping is figuring out motivation. The reality is that there probably isn’t much and Bournemouth probably don't care at all whether Everton gets relegated or not.
They did put it a decent performance against Manchester United last weekend, creating 1.0 xG, but they failed to find the back of the net. This match does set up perfectly for them to sit in their 4-5-1 low block and look to hit Everton in transitional opportunities.
Since we returned from the World Cup, the Bournemouth offense has been incredibly dangerous in counterattacking opportunities. Over the last 18 matches, Bournemouth have created 24.2 xG, which is top 10 in the Premier League. They have only scored 19 goals off those chances, so they’ve actually under-performed.
Bournemouth have also taken the blueprint that has made Brentford so successful by putting a big time emphasis not only in transitional opportunities, but taking advantage of set pieces as well. The Cherries are third in xG per set piece, creating 10.97 xG on 100 set piece opportunities. Everton have been below average defending set pieces, ranking 12th in xG per set piece allowed.
Everton vs Bournemouth Pick
This match is the epitome of “must-win” tax. Everton need to win to stave off relegation, while Bournemouth are on the beach. Handicapping motivation is one the hardest things to do, but on paper this is actually a good matchup for Bournemouth given how Everton are playing under Dyche.
Along with Calvert-Lewin, Nathan Patterson, Seamus Coleman and Vitalii Mykolenko are going to miss this match due to injury, so Everton are going to have no healthy fullbacks to defend the best part of Bournemouth's team, which is their wingers.
So, even though this match means nothing to the Cherries, the price on Everton is absurd just because they need to win.
Pick: Bournemouth +1 (+110)
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