The Dallas Cowboys fell to 1-2 after a wild 34-31 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3. Dallas held an 11-point lead at one point and tied the game at 31 with a late Brandon Aubrey field goal, but Baltimore answered with a 56-yard game-winner as time expired. CeeDee Lamb delivered another big performance with 112 receiving yards, but the Cowboys could not close out a game they had controlled for stretches.
After three weeks, Dallas has shown plenty of offensive firepower but has also lost two games in which the defense struggled to make enough plays late.
The Polymarket odds widgets throughout this preview track how the Cowboys are priced across division, playoff, conference and MVP markets in real time; here's what tends to move those numbers.
Dallas Cowboys Team Odds
Dallas opened the season with a 28-20 loss to the New York Giants, with the defense struggling to slow Jaxson Dart and allowing three touchdown passes. Dak Prescott and the offense had some productive moments, but Dallas managed just 20 points and could not overcome New York's strong third-down performance. The Cowboys responded emphatically in Week 2 by crushing the Washington Commanders 37-20 at home. Prescott completed 26 of 31 passes for 279 yards and four touchdowns, while CeeDee Lamb posted 153 receiving yards and two scores.
Dallas's division and playoff pricing reflects a team the market views as talented but unproven in the areas that decide close games. An offense this productive normally supports stronger odds on its own, but a defense that struggled as badly as Dallas's did a year ago tends to cap a team's pricing until real games show the fix is working.
Division odds for a team like this often trail a direct rival with a cleaner recent track record, even when the underlying talent gap looks smaller on paper. Traders should watch turnover margin and points allowed in the season's opening month especially closely, since those numbers dropped off a cliff for Dallas last year and are the clearest test of whether the offseason changes actually held up.
Conference and Super Bowl futures move more gradually for a team with this kind of split identity. A prolific passing offense keeps a floor under those markets, but traders generally wait for defensive improvement to show up on the field before pricing a deep postseason run as a real possibility.
Dallas trails Philadelphia comfortably in the division race, and that gap holds up moving further up the board, the Cowboys' playoff price still reflects a real shot at October relevance, but their conference and Super Bowl numbers sit closer to the pack than to the favorites, the offense-defense split showing up directly in how the market prices each layer differently.
Top Dallas Cowboys Team Prop Contracts
Team stat-leader contracts for a pass-heavy offense like Dallas's price differently than they do for a run-first team, since heavy volume through the air usually caps how much any single category can dominate a market built around total yardage. A quarterback who leads the league in attempts spreads production across multiple markets rather than concentrating it in one.
That kind of distribution can actually work against a team in these specific contracts, since a passing offense splits credit between a quarterback and two or three receiving options instead of funneling it toward one dominant rushing total. Traders watching Dallas's stat-leader markets should expect steadier, moderate pricing rather than a runaway favorite in any single category.
A retooled running back situation adds a layer worth tracking here too. A featured back locking down full-season work behind an improved offensive line can shift these markets meaningfully once real workload numbers start rolling in.
Dallas sits at 4% in the rushing-yards team leader market, with Javonte Williams — who signed a three-year extension after topping 1,200 rushing yards last season — anchoring the backfield.
Top Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Contracts
Award markets for a high-volume passer like Dallas's quarterback price efficiency and team success alongside raw counting stats. Leading the league in completions supports a strong statistical floor, but MVP-caliber pricing typically also requires the team to win at a rate that matches the individual numbers, which is exactly where a shaky defense can hold a quarterback's market down even in a big statistical season.
Receiver-room depth changes how traders price the passing attack's supporting cast. Splitting targets between two proven options tends to soften any single receiver's individual markets compared to a clear No. 1, even when the two combine for elite overall production.
Traders reassess Dallas's player markets heavily around defensive performance specifically, since the passing game's ceiling is already well understood while the defense's actual level of improvement remains the biggest open question on the roster.
Weekly Update:
Prescott is priced at 8% in the 2026 MVP market, tied for the fourth-highest figure of any quarterback covered in this series, a market Josh Allen currently leads at 13%. Last season Prescott led the NFL in completions with 404, throwing for 4,552 yards and 30 touchdowns.
