Promoguy’s Vegas Fantasy Football Rankings, Week 8
Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Tony Pollard.
We debuted Vegas-style fantasy football rankings prior to this NFL season.
We used season-long prop lines for each player to project fantasy points, using the wisdom-of-the-crowds approach embedded in betting markets to find players undervalued and overvalued by fantasy experts.
For example: if a receiver was listed at 6 catches, 60 yards and 0.5 TDs in the prop market, he’d be projected for 15 points in full PPR, and 9 points in standard formats.
We’ll be doing the same on a game-by-game basis, using props from that week’s games to create fantasy rankings. While you’ll be starting most of the players listed anyway, these rankings can be a good way to find DFS value or make tough lineup decisions early in the season.
Here’s how things shook out for quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers for Week 8 in all formats, with some notes below.
- The biggest surprise has to be Colts QB Sam Ehlinger making his NFL debut. He comes in at No. 10 in our rankings due largely to his rushing upside. He’s ahead of Geno Smith, Dak Prescott and Marcus Mariota.
- Justin Fields — there’s that rushing upside again — also ranks well at No. 8 against a staunch Cowboys defense.
- Not that it’s any secret, but we could have an ugly on at MetLife Stadium today. Mac Jones and Zach Wilson are in the bottom three of our rankings, ahead of only PJ Walker.
- After having his workload scaled back last week, Christian McCaffrey is No. 3 in PPR formats and top 5 in all formats.
- Tony Pollard will finally get the chance to shine without Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield, and the prop markets love him. Pollard comes in at No. 6 in PPR and No. 4 in standard and half-PPR.
- Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor and Aaron Jones all find themselves outside the top 10 in PPR. So does Rhamondre Stevenson, who rated very highly last week.
- Without Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins slots in at WR7 in PPR formats.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown appears to be a full-go for Sunday, and he immediately slots back into the top 10 after missing most of the last month.
- DeAndre Hopkins is No. 6 in all formats after a stellar debut on Thursday Night Football last week.
- DJ Moore also rates favorably after a terrible start to the season; he’s No. 13 in PPR formats.
- Colts receivers all took a little bit of a hit with Ehlinger in at quarterback, as the team’s passing volume is likely to go down.
- With Mark Andrews playing Thursday and Travis Kelce on a bye, George Kittle holds the No. 1 spot in our rankings. The rest of the names at the top shouldn’t be a huge surprise.
- The biggest surprise might be Broncos TE Greg Dulcich, who debuted a few weeks ago but has already started commanding a meaningful target share.