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No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Texas Prediction: Buckeyes Moneyline
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Texas kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET from Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. The Longhorns sit at -1.5 with a 49.5 total, and the Buckeyes sit at even money.
Arch Manning shredded Texas State for 305 yards and four scores, while Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith piled up nearly 700 total yards against Ball State. Neither résumé means much yet.
What does mean something: Texas keeps shrinking when the lights get bright. Ohio State handled the Longhorns 28-14 in the CFP semifinal, then won the 14-7 rock fight in Columbus last September. Ryan Day's staff raises its level in these spots. Sarkisian's teams tighten up.
Getting the No. 1 team at plus money because of home field alone reads like a gift.
Pick: Ohio State moneyline (+100)
No. 11 Oklahoma vs. Michigan Prediction: Sooners Cover on the Road
No. 11 Oklahoma vs. Michigan kicks off at noon ET on FOX inside Michigan Stadium, with the Sooners laying 5.5 and a 43.5 total.
Michigan looked awful in Week 1. The Wolverines needed a 47-yard Hail Mary from Bryce Underwood to JJ Buchanan to survive Western Michigan 13-12, and Underwood finished 12-of-22 for 170 yards with a touchdown and a pick. Twelve points against a Group of Five defense tells you plenty about Kyle Whittingham's offense through one game.
Brent Venables brings the exact defense that punishes a struggling young quarterback, and Oklahoma already beat this program 24-13 in Norman last season. The Sooners control the line of scrimmage and win comfortably.
Pick: Oklahoma -5.5 (-105)
Arizona State vs. No. 10 Texas A&M Prediction: Take the Under
Arizona State vs. No. 10 Texas A&M starts at noon ET at Kyle Field, with the Aggies favored by 14.5 and the total at 50.5.
Both defenses opened at an elite level. Mike Elko's group held Missouri State to 67 total yards, the fewest Texas A&M has allowed since 1978, and Arizona State surrendered just seven points to Morgan State. Those numbers regress, but they point to two disciplined units.
The bigger tell sits up front for A&M. Four new offensive line starters struggled with communication early against Missouri State, which pushes Elko toward the grinding, clock-heavy formula he prefers anyway. Each of Texas A&M's last four games as a favorite finished under the number, and nine of Arizona State's last 10 September road games did the same.
A 27-13 or 24-17 final clears this easily.
Pick: Under 50.5 (-110)
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