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The season-opening Monday Night Football game (8:15 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN) features a Broncos vs. Chiefs AFC West rivalry matchup that could get nasty tonight. Denver boasted the NFL's top defense last season, and this is the first time Patrick Mahomes has taken the field since his season-ending injury in 2025. Kansas City enters as a 2.5-point favorite, leading some to believe we could see an upset tonight.
Once you get your $365 in bonus bets from this welcome offer, be sure to prepare for the road ahead. NFL Week 2 games start with Thursday Night Football, featuring the Lions vs. Bills in the first game ever at the new Highmark Stadium. On Friday, there's even a pair of CFB Week 3 matchups involving Top-25 teams, including Miami vs. Wake Forest and Houston vs. Texas Tech.
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bet365 NFL Odds: Broncos vs. Chiefs Preview & Pick
- DEN: Spread: +2.5 (-110) | Moneyline: +125
- KC: Spread: -2.5 (-110) | Moneyline: -148
- Total: Over 43.5 Points (-110) | Under 43.5 Points (-110)
Lines subject to move before kickoff on Monday, September 14, 2026 at 8:15 p.m. ET. Be sure to check bet365 for the latest updates.
The AFC West opens with its hierarchy genuinely in question for the first time in a decade. Kansas City ran off nine straight division titles and five Super Bowl appearances in six years before stumbling to 6-11 in 2025, while Denver went 14-3 and grabbed the AFC's No. 1 seed along with its first division crown since 2015. The Broncos also swept the series a year ago, including a win at Arrowhead, which was their first sweep of the Chiefs since 2014. Despite all of that, the market still installed KC as favorites, which is exactly the mispricing worth attacking at plus money.
My case for Denver starts with the matchup on the line of scrimmage. The Broncos finished No. 1 in the league at limiting opponent dropback success rate (38.5%), with Nik Bonitto fronting the pass rush and 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II anchoring a top-tier secondary; now they draw a quarterback who hasn't taken a meaningful snap since December. Patrick Mahomes carries no injury designation after a full week of practice, nine months removed from tearing the ACL and LCL in his left knee, but Kansas City held him out of every preseason game as a precaution, meaning his first live reps of 2026 come against the defense best equipped to punish rust. Making it worse, left tackle Josh Simmons is out with a back injury, thinning the protection in front of him.
That's also why l like taking Denver outright more than the spread here. This line opened at Chiefs -3 and has steadily leaked toward a virtual pick'em, which tells you the market largely agrees these teams are even. A +2.5 ticket needs Denver to stay within a field goal; a +125 ticket only needs the Broncos to win the game outright, something they've already done in this building. When a spread compresses toward zero, taking the outright price on the side you like is usually the more efficient bet.
- Broncos vs. Chiefs Pick: Broncos Moneyline (+125)
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