The CJ Cup Byron Nelson returns to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, for the sixth straight year. Historically a "birdie-maker’s paradise" with an average winning score of 25-under par, the course underwent a massive $22 million offseason renovation led by Lanny Wadkins.
The overhaul was triggered after Scottie Scheffler won at a record-tying 31-under par. Wadkins’ redesign aims to rein in the modern pro, hoping to push winning scores down to a tougher 12- to 15-under par by making several major adjustments:
- Rebuilt Green Complexes: Greens on holes 3, 4, 5, and 7 were reshaped and shrunk to demand precise approach play.
- Penal Bunkering: Almost every bunker was repositioned closer to landing zones and greens, making them much tighter and more punishing.
- New Turf Infrastructure: Fairways were replaced with firmer Stadium Zoysia, rough areas with durable TifTuf Bermuda, and greens were converted to 777 Bentgrass to handle Texas heat and provide championship conditions.
Because the tournament falls in the middle of a grueling six-week stretch featuring two majors and two Signature events, the overall strength of the field is relatively weak.
World No. 1 and defending champion, Scottie Scheffler, headlines the 147-player field, with Dallas resident Si Woo Kim (No. 22) being the next highest-ranked player. Other notable names include Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, and Wyndham Clark.
Despite the 2025 renovation, the core blueprint of Tom Weiskopf's original 2004 design remains. It is a long, 7,385-yard, par-71 layout crossed 14 times by Rowlett Creek (though the water rarely comes into play unless a shot is wildly offline).
The par 5s remain highly scorable (historically yielding birdies 54% of the time), even with the 5th hole lengthened to 635 yards. The signature, drivable par-4 14th hole provides classic risk-reward excitement.
Three of the four par 3s measure over 215 yards. They historically play over par and represent the course's toughest natural defense.
In past years, this tournament inevitably turned into a putting contest. While the renovations will make it harder, success will still heavily rely on approach play from 200+ yards and "spike putting" ability on the new Bentgrass greens.
Outright Winner CJ Cup Byron Nelson Picks
I have a pretty crazy wager that I placed Tuesday night when the Knicks were down 20+ points. I bet them live at +600 and parlayed that with Mark Hubbard at +19500. My $5 bet pays $6.8K if Hubbard goes on to win.
In an event where Scheffler is likely to win, I will be light this week. One outright on top of this beautiful parlay.
Stephen Jaeger (+7200)
Jaeger has already proven he can take down the world’s best in this exact environment. He secured his breakthrough PGA Tour victory in the Lone Star State at the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open, where he famously outdueled Scottie Scheffler down the stretch on a windy, challenging Texas layout.
The German native arrives in McKinney riding high on a T18 finish at last week’s PGA Championship. Striking the ball well enough to contend in a major championship field heavily validates his baseline form.
Combine that with a T7 at the Valspar Championship earlier this spring, it’s clear his game is in a place where he can easily blow past a relatively weak, top-heavy Byron Nelson field.
Even before the course was overhauled, Jaeger knew exactly how to navigate this property. He is a perfect 4-for-4 in making cuts at TPC Craig Ranch, with zero weekends off:
- 2024: T20 (-16)
- 2023: T11 (-18, including a scorching weekend round of 63)
- 2022: T38 (-15)
In a week squeezed between signature events and majors where the field depth drops off drastically after Scheffler, targeting an aggressive, long-hitting past Texas champion with stellar course history at +7200 is arguably the best value on the entire betting board.
