Betting on golf can be extremely frustrating.
Getting one or two of your outright bets across the finish line can be the difference between a winning season and a losing one. We haven't gotten off to a good start this year, but I thought the tides were turning at last week's Charles Schwab Challenge.
We had two bets in the mix on Sunday in Alex Smalley and Mac Meissner, but they both fell just short of making the playoff.
At the very least, we didn't have to deal with the heartbreak that Eric Cole backers had on Sunday. Russell Henley birdied his final three holes in regulation and then birdied the first playoff hole to steal the tournament away from Cole.
With plenty to get to, let's take a look at my Memorial Tournament picks and PGA TOUR predictions for this week's event at Muirfield Village Golf Club.
2026 Memorial Tournament Course Preview: Muirfield Village Golf Club
We have another Signature Event on tap this week, although this one features a cut. I don't know about you, but having even a small cut makes a world of difference in terms of the sweating experience of the event.
There are 72 golfers set to tee it up in Ohio this week, with the top 50 and ties, plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead, making the cut.
Muirfield Village is a Par 72 that measures 7,569 yards. This course was designed (and routinely renovated) by Jack Nicklaus, who loves to create as tough a test as possible for these professional golfers.
To show how difficult this course is, the winning scores over the last three years have been -10, -8 and -7. Most of the golfers in the field will end up over par for the week.
The fairways on this course are generous in size, but this is not a bomber's course by any means. There are some forced lay-ups off the tee, and due to the thick rough and the number of doglegs, hitting the fairway is much more important than hitting the ball far at this course.
My preferred off-the-tee metrics this week are Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Good Drive Percentage.
As is the case with most Nicklaus designs, this is more of a second-shot golf course. It's much easier to hit the greens from the fairway, but the average Greens in Regulation Rate at this event is much lower than the TOUR average.
The greens are small (5,000 square feet), and the pins are often tucked in difficult spots. Thanks to the thick rough around the green and the tricky pin positions, the scrambling success rate here is always lower than TOUR average.
Essentially, this course is extremely challenging on approach and around the green. Players also have to drive the ball well and avoid three-putts on these fast Bermudagrass greens. If a golfer has a weakness in his game, Muirfield Village will expose it.
2026 Memorial Tournament Predictions, Picks
Outright Winner: Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +350 (FanDuel)
When I opened the odds on Monday morning, I immediately started building an outright card with golfers priced in the +1800 to +5500 range.
Before making the bets, I couldn't ignore my gut screaming, "Don't be an idiot. Just bet Scheffler this week."
If we can't trust our gut instincts, what can we trust?
Rather than having my usual outright card, Scheffler is my only bet to win this week. It has been far too long since he has won a tournament, especially since he has been in contention in four of his last five starts.
His iron play was uncharacteristically average during the first four months of the season, but he has gained over five strokes on approach in each of his last three events.
Muirfield Village requires a solid all-around game, and Scheffler ranks top-10 in this field in all four of the Strokes Gained categories this year.
In addition to the form and stats, he has an impeccable track record here. In his last four appearances at Muirfield Village, he has two wins and two third-place finishes. I'm putting two units on Scheffler this week.
Top 5 Pick: Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +320 (Caesars)
I was originally going to bet Aberg to win outright at +1600, but I'm going to settle for a top-five instead.
Aberg has been in such good form recently that his T17 finish last week was a tad underwhelming. He has now finished T21 or better in nine straight events with four top-five finishes during that stretch.
He has become an even stronger all-around golfer this year, as he's positive in all four of the Strokes Gained categories.
He also seems to like it at Muirfield Village, finishing T16 and T5 here in his first two appearances.
Top 10 Pick: Patrick Cantlay
Odds: +250 (Caesars)
Cantlay hasn't played a ton of events over the last few seasons, and it has led to some inconsistent golf. However, his game seems to be trending in the right direction at the moment.
He has finished T12 or better in four of his last five events, and he has gained over 30 strokes tee-to-green during that stretch.
The putter has been a little bit of a wild card, but he has historically putted very well on bentgrass greens (especially these ones).
You'll be hard-pressed to find a golfer with better course history, as Cantlay has won here twice and has three more top-10 finishes.
Top 10 & Top 20 Pick: Jordan Spieth
Top 10: +380 (FanDuel) · Top 20: +140 (Caesars)
Spieth is still far from the height of his golfing powers, but he's having his most consistent season on the PGA TOUR in a long time. He has made 11 straight cuts with seven top-20 finishes during that stretch.
He's still searching for his first top-10 of the season, but all the signs point to it happening sooner rather than later.
Spieth's course history at Muirfield Village is also encouraging, racking up two top-10s and two more top-20s at this event over the last five years.
If he can avoid the blow-up round, I like his chances to cash the top-10 and top-20 bets this week.
Top 10 & Top 20 Pick: Rickie Fowler
Top 10: +375 (bet365) · Top 20: +155 (Caesars)
Fowler missing the cut as one of the favorites last week was painful, but golf is hard. A couple of bad breaks can be the difference between playing the weekend and heading home on Friday.
I'm willing to overlook a single missed cut, as Fowler has played some great golf this year. He has four top-10 finishes in his last eight starts and seven top-20 finishes so far this season.
Fowler has a solid all-around game, which is perfect for Muirfield Village.
He hasn't been in the best of form heading into this event over the last five years, but he still has three top-11 finishes here during that stretch.
