The PGA Tour heads to Charlotte this week for the Truist Championship at a place golf junkies know quite well in Quail Hollow Golf Club.
It is Quail this week, then we head northbound for our second major of the year at Aronimink Golf Club for the PGA Championship. A tremendous two weeks ahead in professional golf.
Quail Hollow has been a fixture on the PGA Tour almost every year since 2003. It’s a true championship venue, having hosted the PGA Championship last year and back in 2017, plus the Presidents Cup in 2022. Since 2003, we've seen it evolve from the Wachovia Championship to the Wells Fargo, and now it moves into its next chapter under Truist sponsorship.
Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring just under 7600 yards that features Bermuda/Poa Trivialis (overseed) greens. The tree-lined, parkland course type can play quite difficult, and demands distance off the tee paired with elite long-iron play. This place is one of the most challenging courses on Tour, playing an average of +0.75 strokes per round. The course played just under +2.00 strokes in the two recent majors here.
Similar to last week, we've got another 'Signature Event' with no cut. The field is still strong this week, even with Scottie Scheffler sitting this one out to rest up before defending his PGA Championship next week.
Quail Hollow is the sixth most predictive course on the PGA Tour. I am keeping it very simple this week. I am reviewing course history, recent approach numbers, recent overall off-the-tee numbers and long-iron play.
Based on those stats, here are the top 20 in my model:
- JJ Spaun
- Xander Schaufelle
- Gary Woodland
- Alex Smalley
- Adam Scott
- Sepp Straka
- Rory McIlroy
- Ludvig Aberg
- Viktor Hovland
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Cameron Young
- Rickie Fowler
- Daniel Berger
- Corey Conners
- Si Woo Kim
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Alex Fitzpatrick
- Ryo Hisatsune
- Kurt Kitayama
- Hideki Matsuyama
Outrights:
Ludvig Aberg +1800
One of the best ball strikers in this field, and has the ability to gain 5+ ball striking any given week. Of the players at the top, this is the only number I really like.
Patrick Cantlay +3500
This price is irresponsible. When was the last time Cantlay's outright price was this long? Complete "bet the number" play for someone who has been striking it very well.
Sepp Straka +4500
Have to be back on our main man. Absolutely loved what I saw last week at Doral. Probably the best approach / long-iron player in this field. Once again, very live to win.
Alex Smalley +7000
Strange play on my end, but I can't ignore what Smalley has been doing lately. Three straight weeks of 3+ strokes gained on approach and coming off a T7 at Doral. Sneaky good course history at Quail too—a T18 and a T28, gaining across the board in both trips outside of losing a couple with the flat stick at last year's major. I can oddly see the North Carolina native contending this week.
