This week, we head to Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri, for the second leg of the FedEx Cup — the BMW Championship.
While many golfers look to get into form over the course of the tournament, there are more ways to bet on this tournament than just who will emerge victorious on Sunday.
For more instant gratification, we turn to the first-round leader market to find value on who will sit atop the leaderboard when play comes to an end on Thursday.
Here are my favorite BMW Championship first-round leader picks and PGA Tour predictions for Thursday's opening round.
BMW Championship First-Round Leader Picks
First-Round Leader Pick: Scottie Scheffler (+1000, FanDuel)
Accuracy is key this week. Bellerive Country Club penalizes errant shots due to its thick rough and abundance of deep bunkers and water hazards.
With accuracy off the tee and strong approach play necessary for success, Scottie Scheffler is a great target in this market. Scheffler returned to the win column last week with a dominant victory at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
In his current form, he could very well dominate the rest of the playoffs. A similar performance could be in store this week, given that Scheffler ranks in the 88th percentile in driving accuracy and the 99th percentile in strokes gained: approach.
First-Round Leader Pick: Hideki Matsuyama (+2800, BetMGM)
Another golfer worth targeting in Thursday’s opening round is Hideki Matsuyama. Like Scheffler, Matsuyama fits this course well.
This season, he ranks in the 77th percentile in driving accuracy and the 94th percentile in strokes gained: approach. Matsuyama also enters this week in outstanding form with five straight top-seven finishes.
Once on the greens, putting could help separate those at the top of the leaderboard. Putting performance accounts for a greater share of overall strokes gained at Bellerive than at the average PGA Tour venue, increasing the importance of a strong putter this week.
That bodes well for Matsuyama, who enters this week ranked in the 78th percentile in strokes gained: putting.
