One more event before the top-30 players on Tour qualify for East Lake and compete for a purse of 40 million dollars.
For those wondering where everyone stands entering the week, here are the current top 50 names:
Let's dive into my BMW Championship picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week's event.
BMW Championship Outright Picks
Ludvig Aberg 20/1
I see a common belief among many people that a golfer can't win in the public eye until they cross the finish line. It is a tale as old as time for all these players. Hell, Xander Schauffele couldn't win a major for years, if you asked golf fans, and now he has two of them to his name.
It hasn't looked great this season for me on these takes of optimism (only two outright wins on the card for what has been an exceptionally profitable betting year otherwise), but I am not a believer that Ludvig Aberg is incapable of winning golf events, even if the recent results would suggest otherwise.
Bellerive should accentuate his driving and long-iron acumen, and all the Weighted Scoring marks generate this uptick in production that continues to carry tons of weight in my model.
Does that mean Scheffler won't crash and burn all of those hopes? Absolutely not. I wouldn't feel safe saying the American won't sweep this entire board during the FedExCup Playoffs, but I think the week to bet on him was at the St. Jude. Being back in this 3/1 zone makes me think there is value elsewhere. Maybe that comes from the Swede, who the public will tell you has "no chance."
Xander Schauffele 20/1
As someone who used to bet on Xander Schauffele at every event, I'm surprised this will be only the second time I've wagered on him this season (Masters). I guess that is what happens when you find new players you back every week. I am, of course, speaking of Tommy Fleetwood, Si Woo Kim, and Ludvig Aberg.
Schauffele has historically thrived at these long-iron-intensive layouts. We see that, with 'Weighted Strokes Gained Total' marks in my model, he shifts into the top five for all similar conditions. I get that his recent form has lacked many true "win equity" spots outside the Rocket Classic, but Schauffele's current disappointing year is going to give him two of the best opportunities he's had all season to make it three straight years on tour with a title at the BMW and Tour Championship.
If Schauffele either wins or finds himself in contention, don't be shocked to see this played back one more time at East Lake.
BMW Championship Matchup Pick
Collin Morikawa -111 Over Justin Thomas
We are a week removed from Justin Thomas being one of the "sharper" bets on the board at the St. Jude Championship. I didn't necessarily agree with all the hype around him. However, DFS slates had him as the top leverage play for big-money players, and we also saw him as the sharpest mover for the week in matchups and outright betting boards. A very disappointing 47th derailed some of the wind in his sails, but how much does it detract from a glowing, bettor-friendly profile that is a week removed from landing sharp in all iterations of the market?
For me, I am going to see this as a chance to fade a golfer who might be getting boosted by past viewpoints. As I said at the beginning, Thomas wasn't someone my model overly loved in Memphis. Sure, a 21st-place rank in my sheet landed him inside a reasonable zone, but that 21st-place mark in a 69-man field has fallen way down the pecking order and now puts him 37th in a 50-man contest.
The iron play (especially from long distances) isn't what it was a few years back. While the driver-and-spike-putting combination has MASSIVE upside to propel him up this leaderboard, it is paired with a floor that has real red flags that require pure aggression if he wants to find himself at East Lake.
Thomas has historically clutched up in these moments when his back is against the wall, but I will bet on Morikawa's safer profile and view last week's horrible showing as nothing more than a blip on the radar. Maybe that is too lackadaisical compared to what occurred, but I will trust the math here and take what I deem to be a value at -111. This is pretty widely available at the time of writing, which isn't always the case on some of these plays.
