Butterfield Bermuda Championship 2023 Picks, Odds: Bet Alex Noren & Jason Dufner

Whether the late-year portion of the PGA Tour schedule is actually the beginning of the next season, the end of the previous season, not really part of either or some nebulous purgatory in between them, one overarching theme will continue to persist for as long as September-to-December tournaments remain on the calendar:

The overall level of attraction is less predicated on star power (which is noticeably yet understandably absent during these months) and more based on the power of human-interest stories.

Give a reason for people to care, and they inherently will – and nothing gets people caring like deep-rooted passion from those competing.

All of which brings us to Erik van Rooyen. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more emotional champion in this part of the schedule or any other.

Early last week, van Rooyen received word that his best friend and former University of Minnesota teammate Jon Trasamar might only have weeks to live, after cancer returned and spread throughout his body.

He’d later reveal that he thought about his friend before every shot of the World Wide Technology Championship, including lengthy birdie putts on the 16^th and 17^th holes Sunday afternoon and a title-clinching 16-foot eagle on the last, which was punctuated by a teary-eyed celebration and numerous meaningful hugs with his caddie Alex Gaugert, another college teammate.

“When you’re playing for something bigger than winning some silly trophy,” van Rooyen would say in a moving interview on live television, “it puts it into perspective.”

Such impassioned storylines can’t be manufactured during this part of the PGA Tour schedule, of course, but every once in a while there’s one which transcends the confines of that specific event and reaches beyond the diehards who are paying unequivocal attention.

This week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship is another which lacks much star power, with Adam Scott enlisted early as the oddsmakers’ favorite for a tournament he’s never before played, but as we’ve learned over the years and once again last week, intrigue at these events emanates from the stories, not the stars.

Let’s get to the picks for a fifth straight edition of this event at the 6,828-yard, par-71 Port Royal Golf Course, where elevation and stiff breezes often underscore a course which is trickier than it might seem at first blush.

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Butterfield Bermuda Championship Outright Picks

Outright Winner (Short odds)

One player to win the tournament

Alex Noren (+2800)

First things first: There are admittedly easier venues to decipher than one which has yielded light-hitting Brendon Todd as the 72-hole record-holder and big-hitting Taylor Pendrith as the low man for 18 holes – or one which once gave us short-knocker Brian Gay defeating long-baller Wyndham Clark in a playoff.

The moral of these stories is that this one can be anybody’s ballgame, as the shorter hitters can contend on a sub-7,000 yard track, while the longer guys can often eschew driver for a club which travels straighter.

That leads me to now-cliched strategy of “best ball-striker available,” but before I get to the one who interests me the most this week, let’s take a little walk down Narrative Street.

I’ve been on the Erik van Rooyen hype train for a few months now, through a bevy of top-30 results, and while I “only” listed EVR as a DFS play in last week’s edition of this column, I did add him to my outright card for the same reason I’ve been riding him during this recent stretch.

I love backing players who were once world-class talents, lost their games a bit and are again showing the form of returning to that level, without the previous pricing – and I especially love targeting these players during the fall portion of the schedule, when they’re largely unencumbered by the big fish trying to eat in a proverbially small pond.

Enter Alex Noren, a former Ryder Cupper who was once ranked as high as eighth in the world and has recently shown some reason for optimism. The 41-year-old, who owns 10 career DP World Tour titles, but is still without a PGA Tour victory, has finished in the top 15 in three of his last eight starts, including a share of third in Las Vegas, when a furious back-nine charge came up just a couple of strokes short.

In his lone previous start here, at the first edition of this event, the Swede finished T15 as he broke 70 in all four rounds. At his best, Noren is a ball-striker of the highest order, though the stats show he’s largely been doing his most damage around the greens and on them over the past year.

He’s exactly the type of player I like to target in these events, one who owns all the necessary tools to win, has shown some decent form and doesn’t own a price so cringeworthy that we hesitate to play him.

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Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Jason Dufner +22000 (FanDuel)

Three weeks ago, I went deep down the board for my long-odds outright play, recommending Ryo Ishikawa at 350/1. That’s as big of a number as I’ve ever listed for this specific category, and while he didn’t pay off outright tickets, his T4 finish easily landed for each-way wagers.

I’m not going quite that deep this week, but Jason Dufner owns a ton of value at 220/1 odds. One of five major champions in this week’s field (along with Adam Scott, Lucas Glover, Stewart Cink and Jimmy Walker), Dufner owned a recent run of four results of 31^st or better in five starts, though his last three of MC-66^th-45^th should give us a little more doubt.

Much as with Noren, though, I like the idea of backing a player who’s essentially been there and done that, even though it’s been a while. I don’t mind Sam Bennett (+7500), Austin Smotherman (+9000) or last week’s co-runner-up Camilo Villegas (+11000) for big-number tickets – and I’ll list each of them below, as well – but if we’re looking further down the board, we might as well look way down it and try to identify a guy who could pay off handsomely.

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Butterfield Bermuda Championship One and Done Picks

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Akshay Bhatia (+1800)

On last week’s edition of "The Gimme," our preview show for each week’s PGA Tour event (airing live every Tuesday afternoon at 5:30 p.m. ET on your favorite social media platform and YouTube!), I recommended fading Akshay Bhatia for one reason: Even though I love his long-term prospects, he feels like a momentum-type player at this stage in his career, and he hadn’t been showing much recent form entering that one.

Well, form is fleeting, but so is a lack of it, which is why his T10 finish in Cabo has me quickly jumping to the other side of this fence. If you’re looking for a top-of-the-board play in your OAD pool, I don’t mind “burning” Bhatia this early, especially on a tropical resort course, which is where he’s done so much of his damage over the past year.

Nick Dunlap (+18000)

For those who want to stay far away from the big names here, either to save them for next calendar year or to gain leverage on fellow competitors, check out Nick Dunlap, a sophomore at the University of Alabama and the reigning U.S. Amateur champion.

Playing in his first career non-major event on the PGA Tour, Dunlap won’t have all the anxieties of so many other players in the field who are trying to wedge their way into next year’s signature events or just keep their cards for the upcoming season – and he obviously owns the talent to compete on this level.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Placement Bets

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Camilo Villegas (+2000 for top-five finish)

If there’s a recurring theme throughout this week’s preview, it’s that I’m not touching most of the names near the top of this board.

Nothing against the likes of Brendon Todd (+1800) and Lucas Herbert (+2000), whose prices are likely chopped due to winning this event previously, or Alex Smalley (+2800) and Doug Ghim (+3000), each of whom is capable of winning this tourney, but I’d rather hit a few bigger tickets further down the board.

Camilo Villegas is fresh off being the 54-hole leader at the WWT Championship and eventually finishing in a share of second place. Throughout his career, he’s often been a guy who can get hot and stay hot for a few weeks. This is another play that’s more lottery ticket than no-doubter, but in the true spirit of the fall schedule, I like Villegas to post another title contention.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

David Lipsky (+700 for top-10 finish)

Nothing like backing a player for a top 10 who hasn’t had one since… let’s check our notes… his first event of the year back in January, 26 starts ago.

Woof. That said, David Lipsky is a guy on whom I like taking a chance on shorter courses, and this one owns some correlation to Waialae CC, home of the Sony Open, the site of his most recent top-10 finish.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Austin Smotherman (+300 for top-20 finish)

This is yet another golfer being picked for a prop he never cashes, as Austin Smotherman hasn’t posted a top-20 finish in 16 starts, but he’s come awfully close lately, with results of 23^rd, 27^th and 35^th in his last five events.

As I often say, these lesser-field events are often about getting an opportunity to play some guys you’ve liked over the past year, and Smotherman is one I’ve had my eye on for a while.

Top 30

One player to finish in the top 30

Satoshi Kodaira (+275 for top-30 finish)

When last we saw Satoshi Kodaira, he was busy posting a very solid T12 at the Zozo Championship three weeks ago in his native Japan. (I’ll go ahead and guess that “we” didn’t really see much of him missing the cut last week.)

Another short-course specialist, he’s a guy I don’t mind using in the top-30/top-40 markets or as a low-owned/high-leverage DFS play.

Top 40

One player to finish in the top 40

Paul Haley II (+300 for top-40 finish)

You know things are getting a bit dire when you start thinking to yourself that you’re pretty intrigued by Paul Haley II, who hasn’t finished inside the top 40 of an event in six months. I’ll say this much, though: He’s a good wedge player, so that should count for something this week.

Hey, betting on the Butterfield is pure sicko stuff, as some of my Action Network colleagues would say, so we might as well go full sicko and try to hit some bigger numbers.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Thomas Detry

Though he’s hardly been spectacular lately, Thomas Detry owns a ton of firepower and has quickly taken a liking to Port Royal, with a T22 in his first start and a runner-up result last year.

With each of his last nine appearances finishing between 13^th and 51^st place, he’s more of a high-end floor play than a high-ceiling play, and he is perhaps better served for cash games than GPPs.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Patton Kizzire

It hasn’t been a very fruitful campaign for Patton Kizzire, but he’s been known to make some waves during the autumn events and is coming off a T15 last week. Making his debut in this event, I don’t mind taking a chance on him instantly liking this track.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Brian Stuard

Last week on our SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show “Hitting the Green,” my co-host Michael Collins mentioned Brian Stuard’s name a few times during our preview segments for the WWT Championship.

What he probably didn’t appreciate was me mentioning Stuard’s name to him in a text message, as he climbed the leaderboard on Friday morning, only to finish T45.

Collins now says I jinxed the guy; I maintain that he just picked him a week too early.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round on Thursday

Kelly Kraft (+8000 for FRL)

Full disclosure: Initially, the play here was Mackenzie Hughes, but like so many others, he decided to withdraw early in the week.

Instead, I’ll pivot to Kelly Kraft, who’s been playing some sneaky good golf lately, especially in opening rounds, with four of his last five sub-70 (and the other one exactly a 70), including a pair of 66s. Those rounds led to four results of 33rd or better, so he owns some four-round value, as well, but the play here is a single-round investment.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Kevin Tway (+13000)

Last week, I wrote about Kevin Tway and Tyler Duncan each being valuable commodities in blustery conditions, and while they finished T54 and MC, respectively, I have an excuse: The wind never really blew there.

There should be some stronger breezes this week, and while Duncan was an early WD, Tway could use a big week. The outright number is much too short considering his recent play, but with the likes of Austin Cook, Ryan Gerard and Hank Lebioda at the same number, Tway could provide value in head-to-head wagers simply by making it to the weekend.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Ben Griffin (+2500), Doug Ghim (+3000), C.T. Pan (+5000), Sam Bennett (+7500), Adam Long (+7500), Tano Goya (+13000), Robert Streb (+15000), Jonathan Byrd (+30000), Fred Biondi (+100000)