The PGA Tour's second major of 2026 commences Thursday with the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania.
While the world's top players compete for the Wanamaker Trophy, there are more ways to bet on the tournament than just who will emerge victorious on Sunday.
For more instant gratification, we turn to the first-round leader market to find value on who will sit atop the leaderboard when play comes to an end on Thursday.
Here are my favorite PGA Championship first-round leader picks and PGA Tour predictions for Thursday's opening round.
PGA Championship First-Round Leader Picks
PGA Championship FRL Pick: Cameron Young
Odds: +2700 · DraftKings
When Donald Ross completed Aronimink in the early 20th century, he considered the course one of his masterpieces. One of Ross’ preferred design elements was its emphasis on accuracy and shot-making rather than raw power.
With that in mind, finding fairways is essential off the tee this week due to the penal rough and numerous bunkers lining the course.
That profile benefits Cameron Young, who's one of the hottest golfers in the world.
Young has won three of his past 16 tournaments while adding eight top-10 finishes during that stretch. He has relied on a well-rounded game throughout this run, with improved accuracy off the tee compared with previous seasons.
This is the first season since 2022 that Young has hit fairways at a higher rate than the PGA Tour average. Combined with his distance, he ranks in the 97th percentile on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee.
Young has also been a strong starter, ranking above the PGA Tour average in first-round scoring.
PGA Championship FRL Pick: Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +3500 · BetMGM
Another golfer worth targeting in Thursday’s opening round is Ludvig Aberg. Like Young, Aberg has been a strong starter and ranks 37th on the PGA Tour in first-round scoring average.
He also fits this course well. Entering this week, Aberg ranks in the 95th percentile in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and in the 60th percentile in driving accuracy.
Approach play will be critical, as players face large but complex greens. Hitting precise landing areas will be key given the expected speed of the putting surfaces.
The greens are expected to run around 13.5 on the Stimpmeter, placing a premium on putting. Aberg’s putter has been reliable since he joined the PGA Tour, and he ranks in the 87th percentile in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Aberg was the first-round leader at the RBC Heritage last month and has finished inside the top 10 in five of his past six tournaments. That run could continue this week at Aronimink.
