The Memorial Tournament Expert Picks: Favorites, Long-Shots, Best Bets for Muirfield Village Golf Club

The Memorial Tournament tees off on Thursday morning from Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio.

Scottie Scheffler leads the field this week as a heavy favorite of +280 at DraftKings. Scheffler is -175 to finish in the top five and -350 to finish in the top 10.

After Scheffler there's a steep drop on the odds board despite the Signature Event status of this tournament. Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele are next up, both at +1600 odds. They're followed by Justin Thomas at +1800 odds to win The Memorial Tournament. Three other golfers come in shorter than 30/1 to win The Memorial: Patrick Cantlay and Ludvig Aberg (+2200), and Tommy Fleetwood (+2800).

Let's get into my 2025 The Memorial expert picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week.

The Memorial Tournament Expert Picks

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Bet Fleetwood Outright Instantly!

Tommy Fleetwood Outright Winner (+2500)

Yes, I am well aware that Tommy Fleetwood has never won a tournament on U.S. soil. But you know what? Xander Schauffele couldn't win a major until he did and Ben Griffin couldn't win until he did (twice if you count the team event).

There are so many examples of narratives that are no longer narratives. Fleetwood has played great all season and is coming off a fourth-place finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge where he was positive in all four of the strokes gained categories.

His all-around game is exactly why I love him at this venue. He's a good total driver of the ball and is well above tour average when it comes to iron play, scrambling, and putting.

I get the feeling he will be in the mix after Friday's round. We just need him to stay in it on Saturday, and I'll like his chances to pick up his first PGA Tour win on Sunday.

Quickslip

Bet Lowry Outright Instantly!

Shane Lowry Outright Winner (+3500)

Shane Lowry is coming off a missed cut at the PGA Championship, but he gained 2.3 strokes ball striking. He had a bad week with the putter and missed the cut on the number. He's taken a week off and should be ready to get back at it.

This feels like a perfect course for his skill set, as he's accurate off the tee, an elite iron player, and an underrated scrambler. He's not a good putter, but I've noted that tee to green is more important than putting at Muirfield Village.

Lowry already has two runner-up finishes and three more top-10 finishes this year. It's time for him to cross the finish line. Perhaps he can get it done at a venue where he's had plenty of success.

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Bet Kim Top 10 Instantly!

Si Woo Kim Top 10 (+280)

It's funny how we view golf betting. If we hit a +320 underdog on the moneyline in NFL, NBA, or MLB, we'd be ecstatic if they won. But for some reason, top 10 and top 20 bets don't get a lot of love in the golf markets.

Si Woo Kim has the strong combination of good form and course history. He's rattled off five straight top-30 finishes on tour and has finished in the top 20 at this event in each of the last five years.

It's easy to see why he's had success here, as he's a solid all-around player and one of the most accurate drivers of the ball on tour. It's extremely difficult to hit these greens when you are playing out of the rough.

Tony Finau Top 10 (+360)

Tony Finau gets labeled as a bomber, but he's actually dialed back the driver a ton over the last few years. Believe it or not, he's seventh in this field in total driving over the last three months.

It hasn't been a great year for him, but he has historically been a good long iron player and an excellent scrambler. The putter is the club that lets him down more often than not, but that's less of an issue at this course.

Finau is coming off back-to-back top 20 finishes and has finished T13 or better in five of his last eight appearances at Muirfield Village.

The Memorial Tournament Course Preview: Muirfield Village Golf Club

We head to Jack's Place (Muirfield Village Golf Club) for a Signature Event this week. It's a fun stretch of golf, as we have the RBC Canadian Open and the U.S. Open the following two weeks.

This has always been one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour, and Jack Nicklaus never seems to have a finished product. He is always lengthening and making changes to the course in order to make it more difficult for the professionals that come here once a year.

On the scorecard, Muirfield Village is a par-72 that measures just under 7,600 yards. It's a classical course that features tree-lined fairways and extremely thick rough (four inches). The fairways are fairly narrow and difficult to hit.

While the length of the course lends itself to bombers, hitting fairways here is extremely important. Golfers hit less than 35% of greens in regulation when hitting their approach shots from the rough last year. Total Driving or Good Drive Percentage are my favorite off-the-tee metrics to use this week.

The greens here are small (5,000 square feet) and difficult to hit on average. With tucked pins and thick rough surrounding these greens, scrambling here is very difficult. In fact, the scrambling success rate here is one of the lowest on tour.

When you add in the fact that the greens are tough to hit in regulation, it's easy to see why so many bogeys are made at this course every year.

The greens themselves will be lightning-fast and feature pure bentgrass, which has been a common theme of the courses we have seen on tour recently.

This course is going to test every aspect of the game. In comparison to other courses, it's difficult to gain strokes off the tee, it's difficult to gain strokes on approach, and it's very difficult to gain strokes around the green. This might be the most demanding course all year when it comes to tee to green play.

Due to that, I'm completely fine taking my chances with a bad putter or two this week.

The Memorial Tournament Schedule, How to Watch

• What: 2025 The Memorial Tournament
• When: May 29-June 1, 2025
• Where: Muirfield Village Golf Club, Dublin, Ohio
• Par: 72
• Length: 7,569
• Purse: $20 million

Round 1: Thursday, May 29

• Start time: 7:50 a.m. ET
• Live stream: ESPN+ (8 a.m. to 6 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (2 to 6 p.m. ET)

Round 2: Friday, May 30

• Start time: 7:50 a.m. ET
• Live stream: ESPN+ (8 a.m. to 6 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (2 to 6 p.m. ET)

Round 3: Saturday, May 31

• Start time: TBD
• Live stream: ESPN+ (8 a.m. to 6 a.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (1 to 2:30 p.m. ET); CBS (2:30 to 6:30 p.m. ET)

Round 4: Sunday, June 1

• Start time: TBD
• Live stream: ESPN+ (8 a.m. to 6 a.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (1 to 2:30 p.m. ET); CBS (2:30 to 6:30 p.m. ET)

The Memorial Tournament Odds, Favorites

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