Happy Players Championship week.
Big congrats to Akshay Bhatia for winning last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Couldn’t have been less surprised the 24-year-old was on top of the leaderboard. The LA kid has been knocking on the door every single week for the last 30 days now. It was only a matter of time.
The leaderboard at the API looked very similar to what we saw at Pebble Beach. You think of players like Bhatia, Collin Morikawa, Min Woo Lee, and Sepp Straka. Players who are elite ball strikers. And it seems like these are the players who are contending week in and week out.
For those curious, strokes gained: ball striking measures a player’s strokes gained: off the tee numbers and their strokes gained: approach numbers. Combining elite driver and iron play equates to greens in regulation, which wins you golf tournaments.
I was quite disappointed with Straka this past week. Going into Sunday he was sitting at T2 and posted a 76 for his final round score. The Austrian just needs to figure out how to put a full 72 holes of golf together. I think he will be just fine given he still gained over five strokes ball striking at the API.
If you look at the stats, Bhatia lost almost four strokes off the tee at the API and still won. He was an absolute savant with his short game, gaining 10-plus strokes with the flat stick and over five around the green. These players are so solid in all facets of the game. If the driver is off, they capitalize in a different way.
I believe these same players are going to be up on the leaderboard this week at TPC Sawgrass. I am also going to highlight a few other players I think we need to keep a close eye on moving forward. I sense some trending occurring.
Onto The Players we go..
Spotlight
Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy
I doubt McIlroy will play this week because of his new back injury he suffered at the API. To be honest, I will be shocked if he plays. Something is just off with Scheffler. I won't be on him and don’t think he contends this week in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Trending Players Worth Betting
Adam Scott (+5700)
My first player here is Adam Scott. The Aussie has been striking the ball like you wouldn’t believe.
All stats are from betspertsgolf.com
I mean, just look at those ball-striking numbers over his last seven starts (not including the Baycurrent Classic given the lack of shot link data at that event).
Now take a look at it as a whole.
The short game has been brutal. But after gaining four-plus strokes with the flat stick at the Genesis and now three-plus this week at API, topped with a fourth and now a T11, I’m not going to say Masters, but year after year we get that veteran player who always contends at Augusta. Similar to Justin Rose last year. That can very well be the Aussie in 2026.
Min Woo Lee (+4800)
My next player is another Aussie in Min Woo Lee. A T6 this past week, a T12 at Riviera, and a T2 at Pebble. Lee has been a complete weapon off the tee. I like Lee in any tournament moving forward, but especially this week at Sawgrass, a place he has succeeded at with only playing it three times. His best finish was a T6 in 2023.
To win at Sawgrass, you must be hitting fairways to give yourself good looks to his greens given all of the water trouble. Water is on 16 holes at Sawgrass. Players who are elite clubbing down and still getting good distance for seeking accuracy will stay in it.
Lee does this at an extremely high level and I am confident he continues his good play.
Sepp Straka (+5200)
What are we going to do with Sepp Straka? I feel like he's been so close yet so far in these last three starts now. And the thing is, he’s actually playing very solid golf and finishing very well.
Not counting the Genesis where he completely blew up in round three, he finished T11 this past week at the API, T2 at Pebble, and T18 at Waste. He’s been striking it beautifully.
Straka is so good off the tee, so good at gaining fairways, and so good at tracks with high water danger.
As mentioned, it’s going to come down to playing a full 72 holes for the Austrian. Also, I think it's time to put a rest on Straka's lack of driving distance. He ranked 16th last week, averaging 311 yards driving the ball.
He has another really good chance this week at a place he loves. In his five starts here, Straka has a T9, T16, and T14. You best believe we are running back the Diet Coke man.
Favorite Favorites
Collin Morikawa (+2400)
There’s not much more to say about Collin Morikawa than when he’s playing well, he’s likely winning. Just stacking weeks now since his win at Pebble Beach last month. His ball striking was beautiful last week at the API, gaining just over 6 strokes in that category.
I have no reason to believe he won't be up there come Sunday at Sawgrass.
Ludvig Aberg (+3100)
I think Ludvig Aberg is really finding himself since the slow start to the season. Not to mention, Augusta coming up. A place he loves. A place he knows he can win at.
I would have to think the Swede is more locked in than ever.
Cameron Young (+3200)
T7 at the Genesis two weeks ago and a T3 last week at the API. I have said since the start of the year that this is Cameron Young’s year to win that big event. He was third in the field ball striking last week at Arnie’s place as well.
Just keep an eye out on the Wake Forest alum. It’s coming soon.
