Valspar Championship Betting Guide: 5 Picks Our Expert Loves This Week

We had a wild Sunday at The Players Championship. Ludvig Aberg went from the clear frontrunner to being out of contention in the span of two holes. At that point, Matt Fitzpatrick looked like he was going to win the event, but he played the final three holes at 1-over par, while Cameron Young played them at 1-under par to win by one. The drive Young hit on 18 was nothing short of spectacular. It was the longest drive ever recorded on that hole.

After picking up the biggest win of his career, it'll be interesting to see how Young fares in the majors this year.

Where is the Valspar Championship?

Valspar Championship Course Preview: Innisbrook Resort

We have the final event of the Florida swing on tap this week. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is a par-71 course measuring 7,352 yards. It features a unique layout for a Par 71, as there are four Par 5s and five Par 3s on the scorecard. This is typically one of the toughest courses on TOUR, as the winning score has fallen between -10 and -17 in each of the last five years.

While this course is in Florida, it's quite different from the likes of TPC Sawgrass, Bay Hill, and PGA National. This course is tree-lined, has elevation changes, and has water in play on only 6 of the 18 holes. If anything, this course has more of a Carolinas feel.

This is not a course that you can dominate off the tee. The fairways are extremely narrow (27 yards wide), and there are plenty of dog legs. Golfers only hit a driver on 52% of tee shots here last year, and the average driving distance was only 278 yards. Both marks were among the lowest on TOUR in 2025.

The greens here are average in size (5,800 square feet) and tough to hit in regulation. Good iron play and good scrambling go a long way at this venue. The greens feature bermudagrass and should measure around 12 on the stimpmeter.

With off-the-tee metrics not mattering as much this week, we should focus on the other three strokes-gained categories: approach, around the green, and putting. I am also taking a long look at Par 3 scoring and Par 5 scoring.

Course history has not been very predictive over the years. While it never hurts to have a good course history, it certainly isn't a prerequisite for success, as it is in some other courses on TOUR.

Valspar Championship Picks

Nicolai Hojgaard +3700 (DraftKings)

Betting on the Hojgaard twins is a passion of mine. I can't wait until it actually pays off. I prefer Nicolai over Rasmus this week, even though the latter has a better number. Nicolai is a better iron player and a little better around the green. He's also been in better form this year, making all 7 of his cuts with 3 top 6 finishes. He's still searching for his first win on the PGA TOUR, but he has already secured 3 wins on the DP World Tour. His solid tee-to-green game makes him a nice fit for this week's course, and he's more live to win in a weaker field like this one.

Ben Griffin +4000 (bet365)

I'm still licking my wounds from Griffin's missed cut last week. He was in my main DFS lineup and in a 6-golfer made cut parlay. While not ideal, he really only had one bad round (he was 2-under on Thursday). We now have the chance to bet him at +4000 on a course that sets up perfectly for his game. If you put him in the middle of the fairway with everyone else in the field, I like his chances against anyone. He's a good iron play, an elite scrambler, and an elite putter. The high-end finishes haven't been there this year, but this is a golfer who won 3 times on TOUR in 2025.

Ryo Hisatsune +4200 (DraftKings)

I expect Hisatsune to make a lot of outright cards this week, so it'll be a party on social media if he can cross the finish line. He has made 7 straight cuts this year and has posted 3 top 10 finishes during that stretch. The form is encouraging, as is the fact that he has finished T4 and T33 at this event in the last two years. He's a great fit for the course, as he's an accurate driver of the ball, an excellent iron player, and a good scrambler. If he can have a positive week on the greens, he should find himself in the mix on Sunday.

Nick Taylor +4500 (BetMGM)

Taylor is a golfer who posts a lot of middling finishes, and then out of nowhere, he'll pop up and contend. He has yet to finish in the top 10 this season, but he has yet to miss a cut. The game has been solid, and he's played well on many courses that aren't the best fits for his biggest strengths. I view Copperhead as one of the best courses for him, as it requires strong iron play and a good short game. It also helps to be good on Par 3s, and Taylor is in the top 10 in this field in Par 3 scoring.

Austin Smotherman +5500 (BetRivers)

If you like good iron play, you should like Smotherman this week. It doesn't matter if you look at the last 3 months, 12 months, or 18 months; he's first in this field in approach play. He's also an accurate driver of the ball, which really helps on a less-than-driver course. His short game leaves much to be desired, but that's why he's +5500. We saw him contend at PGA National a few weeks ago, and he played very well (T13) at THE PLAYERS Championship last week. He's made the cut here in both of his appearances, and he's a much better golfer at this stage of his career.

When is the Valspar Championship?

The 2026 Valspar Championship tees off on Thursday, March 19, 2026.

• What: 2026 Valspar Championship
• When: March 19-22, 2026
• Where: Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbor, Fla.
• Par: 71
• Length: 7,352
• Purse: $9.1 million

Where to Watch the Valspar Championship?

2026 Valspar Championship TV Schedule

Round 1: Thursday, March 19

• Live stream: ESPN+ (7:30 a.m. to 6 p.m.)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (2 to 6 p.m. ET)

Round 2: Friday, March 20

• Live stream: ESPN+ (7:30 a.m. to 6 p.m.)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (2 to 6 p.m. ET)

Round 3: Saturday, March 21

• Live stream: ESPN+ (7:45 a.m. to 6 p.m.)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (1 to 3 p.m. ET); NBC (3 to 6 p.m. ET)

Round 4: Sunday, March 22

• Live stream: ESPN+ (7:45 a.m. to 6 p.m.)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (1 to 3 p.m. ET); NBC (3 to 6 p.m. ET)

Who is Favored to Win the 2026 Valspar Championship?

Xander Schauffele is favored to win the 2026 Valspar Championship at +1100 odds at DraftKings.

Next up on the odds board is the defending champion, Viktor Hovland, who is +1550 to win the Valspar Championship.

Other top contenders include Matt Fitzpatrick at +1800, and Akshay Bhatia at +2250.

Valspar Championship 2026: Odds, Favorites

Odds via DraftKings as of Monday

Premium picks, tools & analysis

Track & follow smart money

Biggest player prop edges

Real-time expert pick alerts

SAVE 66% NOW!