2025 Kentucky Derby Odds for Saturday
| Post | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 |
| 2 | Neoequos | 50-1 |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 10-1 |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 8-1 |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 36-1 |
| 12 | East Avenue | 35-1 |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 15-1 |
| 15 | Render Judgment | 50-1 |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 |
| 17 | Sandman | 5-1 |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 9-2 |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 20-1 |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 50-1 |
| 21 | Baeza | 50-1 |
Odds via TwinSpires as of Friday morning. Use our TwinSpires promo code ACTIONRACING to get a $400 Sign Up Offer!
The Triple Crown begins May 3 in the Run of the Roses, and I'm back with a pile of best bets for Saturday's races.
Kentucky Derby picks Saturday feature solid predictions across six undercard races, as well as how to bet the headliner. The Kentucky Derby, Race 12 at Churchill Downs, is slated for 6:57 p.m. ET.
Check out all my picks below, beginning with Saturday's main race.
2025 Kentucky Derby Picks, Predictions
Kentucky Derby Exactas: 7,8 / 3,7,8,17,21
Kentucky Derby Trifectas: 7,8 / 3,7,8,9,17,18,19,21/ 3,7,8,9,17,18,19,21
Win Contender: #7 Luxor Cafe, shipping over from Japan where he’s won his last four starts. His sire is American Pharoah who won this race back in 2015. He has a strong late kick, which will be key in a race with a lot of early pace.
Win Contender: #8 Journalism (3-1). The deserving morning-line favorite comes in with the highest last out Beyer Speed Figure (102). While he looks to be the most-talented horse in the field, he’s only beat 12 horses in his last three starts combined. He will need to beat 18 others in the Derby. He’s bred top and bottom to get the distance and has a ferocious closing kick. For Journalism, it will all come down to the trip.
Underneath: #3 Final Gambit (30-1). He’s never raced on dirt, but recently won the Jeff Ruby Steaks. In the last 22 years, five horses who won the Jeff Ruby have hit the board, which is part of the reason he’s one to use underneath. He is a deep closer, coming from last to win in his most-recent start. If the pace melts down look for him to come flying late.
#17 Sandman (6-1) won the Arkansas Derby to punch his ticket. Over the last 10 years, three horses who have run in the Arkansas Derby have gone on to win here, proving to be a key prep race. At the time of writing this Rodriguez has scratched, which will impact that pace, making it tougher for Sandman. That said, he appears to be getting better with every start and is bred top and bottom to get the distance.
2025 Kentucky Derby Day Picks: Predictions for Saturday's Races
- Race 5: Win – #6 Sacred Wish (Best Bet of the Day)
- Race 5: Pick 3 – 6 / 1,5,6 / 7,8
- Race 7: Win – #7 Think Big
- Race 7: Pick 3 – 7,8 / 3,10,11 / 2,3,7,10
- Race 8: Win – #10 Nysos
- Race 8: Exacta – 10 / 3
- Race 9: Win – #7 Zulu Kingdom
- Race 10: Win – #7 Vahva
- Race 11: Exacta box – 1,7
Race 5, 1:12 p.m. ET: #6 Sacred Wish
The Pick:#6 Sacred Wish (3-1) is making her second start off a layoff, where she finished fourth. She had to navigate significant traffic and was able to make up ground while moving in between horses. When she ran second off the layoff the other two times, she won, which is a good sign for this spot. She also owns the highest Beyer Speed Figure in the field. For all of those reasons she is not only the pick, but she’s the best bet of the day.
Race 6, 1:53 p.m. ET: #1 Madaket Road
The Pick:#1 Madaket Road (2-1) was on the Derby trail but didn’t earn enough points to get in. He finished fourth in the Florida Derby in his last start. Trainer Bob Baffert is back at Churchill Downs after a three-year suspension. Madaket Road should be the speed in here and the cut back in distance suits him well.
Underneath:#6 Gaming (3-1) is the other Baffert horse in the field. He’s making his second start off the layoff, where he earned a field best (tied) Beyer Speed Figure. If he’s able to improve off that effort, he wins in this spot.
#5 Gate to Wire (6-1) tried to earn his way into the Derby by running in the Fountain of Youth back in March. While he didn’t have the cleanest of trips, he wasn’t going to win that race regardless. His only other dirt start was two back, where he sat a nice stalking trip and was able to win going away. He should get a similar trip in this spot and could cross the wire in front.
Race 7, 2:38 p.m. ET: #7 Think Big
The Pick:#7 Think Big (4-1) has been a different horse since moving over to grass, winning all three of his turf races. He ran huge last time in the G2 Shakertown at Keeneland, beating a number of foes he will face again Saturday. There appears to be plenty of pace for him to run into so it will come down to the trip and how much moisture is in the ground.
Underneath:#8 Rogue Lightning (7-2) had the lead in the stretch before Think Big ran him down. Between making his second U.S. start and his stalking style, he could flip the tables on Think Big.
Race 8, 3:23 p.m. ET: #10 Nysos
The Pick:#10 Nysos (4-1) is undefeated in three career starts, but his last start came in February of 2024. He has destroyed his competition winning by a combined 26 ¾ lengths. Many believe he would have been the Derby favorite last year if he had stayed healthy. This isn’t a cake walk by any stretch of the imagination, but Bob Baffert puts his horses in the right spots. He’s been training lights-out leading up to this spot, too.
Underneath:#3 Book ‘em Danno (8-1) was one of the best three-year-old dirt sprinters last year, winning three of his seven starts and hitting the board three other times. This will be the second start of his four-year-old campaign after winning easily last time out. If he gets back to his top form he can upset a very salty field.
#11 Millikin (7-2) is a perfect 2/2 at Churchill Downs and has proved to be a distance specialist, having three wins and two seconds across five starts. While he’s making his first start off the layoff, he’s proven that shouldn’t be a problem. The outside post will allow him to get an ideal trip by sitting in a stalking position.
Race 9, 4:06 p.m. ET: #7 Zulu Kingdom
The Pick:#7 Zulu Kingdom (4-1) won his three-year-old debut for trainer Chad Brown. He’s only lost once in five career starts and the jockey lost his crop in that race. His forward running style, in combination with the jockey and trainer, and fact that he’s won over a turf course with moisture in it, will make him the top selection.
Underneath:#10 Iron Man Cal (4-1) missed by a neck in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf in his last start. Making his first start as a three-year-old, he should improve, and any improvement off that effort puts him in the winner's circle in this spot. Trainer Phil D’Amato wins at 18% of the turf and 19% first off the long layoff, but he only has 1 win from 34 starts on the turf at Churchill Downs.
#3 New Century (3-1) owns the highest Beyer Speed Figure in the field when he ran a 93 at Woodbine last fall. Trainer Brendan Walsh had a fantastic Keeneland meet and looks to keep things rolling with this one. New Century is making his first start for Walsh who has a 24% hit rate in these spots. Walsh and jockey Irad Ortiz are winning at a 40% clip from 25 starts.
#2 Scipio (12-1) always seems to find himself in the mix at the wire. He has a ferocious closing kick so he will need pace to run into, but there appears to be enough signed on to set up for him. Trainer Richard Baltas is 0 for 6 on the turf at Churchill Downs. Another knock is that Flavien Prat chose to stay aboard Zulu rather than Scipio.
Race 10, 4:50 p.m. ET: #7 Vahva
The Pick:#7 Vahva (6-1) loves Churchill Downs as she is a perfect 4/4 and a distance specialist. She hasn’t been seen since the Breeders' Cup last fall, but has been training lights-out coming into this spot. She’s shown versatility and with the amount of pace, expect her to come from off of it.
Underneath: #2 Kopion (8-1) freaked last time out, putting up a field-best 110 Beyer Speed Figure. If she runs back to that, she will win, but it’s important to note that was against Grade 2 competition and only a four-horse field. She’s in much tougher waters Saturday, but any horse who runs a 110 deserves respect.
#11 Positano Sunset (12-1) has won both of her starts as a five-year-old. Last time out she upset the field in the G1 Madison at odds of 14-1 and looks to do that again here. She does her best running late and if the early pace collapses, she can pick up the pieces late at a big price.
Race 11, 5:39 p.m. ET: #1 Integration
The Pick:#1 Integration (4-1) has more triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures (5) than the rest of the field combined. He’s making his second start off the layoff and third as a five-year-old. He has won three of his six starts at this distance and has been working sharply. He’s primed for this spot.
Underneath:#7 Running Bee (5-1) finished with a massive late kick to get up in the shadow of the wire last time out. It’s important to note that he’s getting another half a furlong Saturday, which he should relish. Three of his eight victories have come off the layoff, so no concerns there. Trainer Chad Brown and jockey Flavien Prat teamed up to win this race last year with Program Trading at similar odds – could we see a repeat?
2025 Kentucky Derby Day Picks
- Race 5: Win – #6 Sacred Wish (Best Bet of the Day)
- Race 5: Pick 3 – 6 / 1,5,6 / 7,8
- Race 7: Win – #7 Think Big
- Race 7: Pick 3 – 7,8 / 3,10,11 / 2,3,7,10
- Race 8: Win – #10 Nysos
- Race 8: Exacta – 10 / 3
- Race 9: Win – #7 Zulu Kingdom
- Race 10: Win – #7 Vahva
- Race 11: Exacta box – 1,7
- Race 12: Exacta – 7,8 / 3,7,8,17,21
- Race 12: Trifecta – 7,8 / 3,7,8,9,17,18,19,21/ 3,7,8,9,17,18,19,21
