Saturday marks the 152nd renewal of the Kentucky Derby.
Action Network's Sean Zerillo already came through with a 2026 Kentucky Derby simulator, and now he's back with his top picks and predictions for the "Greatest Two Minutes in Sports."
Let's dive into his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks and Kentucky Derby predictions for the race on Saturday, May 2.
2026 Kentucky Derby Picks, Predictions
| Horse | Odds | A or B |
|---|---|---|
| No. 12 Chief Wallabee | 8-1 | A |
| No. 18 Further Ado | 6-1 | A |
| No. 6 Commandment | 6-1 | A |
| No. 9 The Puma | 10-1 | B |
| No. 1 Renegade | 6-1 | B |
| No. 15 Emerging Market | 15-1 | B |
Specific betting recommendations feature the preferred odds as of writing. Remember to always shop for the best price(s) available. | ||
Zerillo's 2026 Kentucky Derby 'A' Picks
No. 12 Chief Wallabee
8-1 on Morning Line
My top selection is No. 12, Chief Wallabee, who's listed about 8-1 on the morning line. His number actually floated up, surprisingly, but I think we’ll see it settle back closer to that 8-1 or 6-1 range by post time.
My fair odds on him are 4-1, and I’d be comfortable betting him straight down to 5-1.
I think he’s the most talented horse in the field, and I think he has the highest upside. If there’s a horse in this crop capable of winning the Triple Crown, Chief Wallabee is the one I’d point to. Now, I'm not saying he will, but he has the tools.
His last loss looked like a bit of a lane distraction; they’re adding blinkers here to help keep him focused and sharper in the stretch. On top of that, his workouts over the past two weeks have been the most eye-catching of the bunch.
And yes — he’s got the best name in the race. Give me Chief Wallabee to etch his name in history at the available price. Again, I make him closer to 4-1 and would bet him straight down to 5-1.
Pick: No. 12 Chief Wallabee (Play to 5-1)
No. 18 Further Ado
6-1 on Morning Line
My favorite in this spot is the No. 18, Further Ado, who's 6-1 on the morning line.
He’s the horse most handicappers are picking this week, and that consensus will make him a very popular top choice with the betting public. Because of that momentum, I wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually replaces Renegade as the morning-line favorite.
The post and pace set him up nicely. From the outside with speed to his inside, my simulator usually paints him one path off the leaders, sitting just off them around the final turn and looking to pass.
Given that pattern, he’s my likeliest to hit the board and my likeliest winner in this field.
That said, I’m not convinced he’s the most talented horse in the race. There are legitimate concerns: He’s not the biggest horse in the group, and there’s a chance of a bounce after his last start. All of that keeps me a bit cautious.
I make his fair odds around 5-2 or 7-2. You’ll probably be able to get that or better early, but I view him as likely to be one of the more heavily backed players on race day.
Value-wise, I prefer Chief Wallabee. I’ve got them right next to each other. Further Ado is the likeliest to hit the board and win, but Chief Wallabee represents the better value play for me.
Pick: No. 18 Further Ado (6-1)
No. 6 Commandment
6-1 on Morning Line
Brad Cox has another nice one here in the No. 6 Commandment, who's going off at 6-1 on the morning line.
He won the Florida Derby and the Fountain of Youth — the two fastest prep races of the season — and he’s put up similar top numbers in back-to-back starts, just like Chief Wallabee.
There's consistency, and oftentimes when horses pair up those figures, they tend to improve on it in the third race.
Now, Commandment isn’t the most explosive horse. He’s more of a grinder. But that’s exactly the profile you want in a faster-paced race. When the tempo is hot, a grinder who can sustain his run tends to come rolling late and either wins or at least lands on the board.
I’ve got Commandment as an A. He's a legitimate win contender and a very solid underneath play.
Pick: No. 6 Commandment (6-1)
Zerillo's 2026 Kentucky Derby 'B' Picks
No. 9 The Puma
10-1 on Morning Line
I’m absolutely willing to use The Puma. I think he’s a legitimate threat to win, but he's just more of a B than an A for me.
He’s trained by Gustavo Delgado, who won the Kentucky Derby with Mage in 2023, and the form lines make sense. The Puma beat Further Ado in the Tampa Bay Derby and then lost the Florida Derby to Commandment.
He’s sitting around 10-1 now. I peg his fair odds closer to 9-1, so at 10-1 or higher, he clears my value threshold and I’ll be using him.
Pick: No. 9 The Puma (10-1)
No. 1 Renegade
4-1 on Morning Line
I make Renegade about 7-1, so I think he's a bit overvalued when you compare that to the morning line of 4-1.
His speed figures are a tick below some of the top contenders, and in a 20-horse Derby field, that little gap matters.
He has to navigate traffic, hit the perfect pace set-up, and avoid getting boxed in down the stretch, which adds negative variance to an otherwise reliable late run.
I’m not fully against him; favorites usually hit the board in the Derby, and Renegade is consistent with that late kick. But I’m reluctant to back him on the moneyline at the price I project.
I’ll be against him in the exacta. More specifically, I’ll use him underneath (third/fourth) in trifectas, and maybe second in some tickets, but I won’t be pushing him on top.
It's also worth noting that no horse has won from the rail since 1986. We're using a different gate setup now that gives the inside draw a slightly cleaner path into the first turn, so the rail is less of a death sentence than it used to be.
Still, Renegade’s pattern here is simple — he’s going to drop back and make the one late run. That works often, but in this crowded field and at the current price, I’m taking the safer-value routes rather than putting him on top.
Pick: No. 1 Renegade (4-1)
No. 15 Emerging Market
15-1 on Morning Line
Emerging Market has been the buzziest horse of the week — and for good reason. He has just two lifetime starts, and horses with only two starts historically haven’t fared well in the Derby.
Then again, that sample is tiny — seven or eight horses total — and we’re in a different era of racing now.
If you’re going to trust a trainer to have a horse ready off two starts, it's probably Chad Brown.
I make Emerging Market about 13-1. He’s listed at 15-1 now, though I expect the price to drift down toward 10-1 as money comes in. If he stays around 15-1, there’s real value, and I’ll likely play him third or fourth underneath on my tickets.
2026 Kentucky Derby Exactas
I'm focusing on two different exacta tickets while trying to beat the No. 1 Renegade.
The first is a $10 Key Box, which has my top selection No. 12 Chief Wallabee finishing in either first or second, along with one of the No. 6 Commandment, No. 9 The Puma, No. 15 Emerging Market or No. 18 Further Ado.
That $10 ticket will cost $80,and pay out anywhere from around $1,152 (12-15) to $530 (18-12) based upon the current exacta pool.
I'll also play a backup $2 box in the event that two of those four, not including No. 12 Chief Wallabee, both finish top two.
That $2 ticket would pay out between around $75 and $282, depending upon the hit, giving us additional coverage and ways to turn a profit (or break near even) in this pool.
Tickets
- $10 Exacta Key Box: [12] / [6, 9, 15, 18] = $80 ticket
- $2 Exacta Box: [6, 9, 15, 18] = $24 ticket
2026 Kentucky Derby Trifectas
I'm going to play a part wheel in the trifecta pool, also focusing on getting my top selection, No. 12 Chief Wallabee, in the money.
These tickets also give us some additional coverage if the morning line favorite, No. 1 Renegade, wins the race or finishes second and my other top selections hit the board.
That will involve three tickets and three different tiers of horses.
Tickets
- $1 Trifecta: [12] / [1, 6, 9, 15, 18] / [1, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14, 15, 18] = $40
- $1 Trifecta: [1, 6, 9, 15, 18] / [12] / [1, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14, 15, 18] = $40
- $1 Trifecta: [1, 6, 9, 15, 18] / [1, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14, 15, 18] / [12] = $40
