Tonight, 19 horses will line up at the Churchill Downs starting gates for the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
I built a race simulator using my own power rankings and Monte Carlo simulation to help you handicap the field, identify edges against the morning line, and watch the chaos of a 19-horse race unfold one simulated run at a time.
Each time you hit "New Sim", the tool will generate one of 10,000 random simulations of the Kentucky Derby, and hopefully, those visualizations and the accompanying data will help you to make your race selections.
The simulator also shows projected exotics payouts based on live exacta betting pool data. If you'd like to calculate the approximate ROI for your ticket without the visualization, you can experiment with the projected payout tool below (the pool data should update regularly).
Lastly, you can find a table with my fair odds and projected finishing odds for each horse (which powers the simulator), along with notes on what the methodology includes and excludes.
Post time is Saturday at 6:57 p.m. ET. Until then, try your luck against the simulator.
