On Saturday evening, 20 horses will line up at the Churchill Downs starting gates for the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
But you don't have to wait until Saturday to see how the race might play out.
I built a race simulator using my own power rankings and Monte Carlo simulation to help you handicap the field, identify edges against the morning line, and watch the chaos of a 20-horse race unfold one simulated run at a time.
Each time you hit "New Sim", the tool will generate one of 10,000 random simulations of the Kentucky Derby, and hopefully, those simulations and the accompanying data will help you to make your race selections.
Below, you will find my 2026 Kentucky Derby simulator, a table of my fair odds and projected finishing odds for each horse (which powers the simulator), and notes on what the methodology includes and excludes.
Post time is Saturday at 6:57 p.m. ET. Until then, try your luck against the simulator.
Kentucky Derby Simulator
Projected Odds
About the Model
Each horse has a base ability score combining Beyer Speed Figures (best + average), TimeformUS pace fingerprint, class, distance/surface fit, trainer quality, form trend, workout sharpness, and jockey-trainer combinations; plus an EP tactical-speed bonus (the Derby's preferred profile historically) and a per-horse trip bonus that captures the actual pace setup (e.g. clean rail pocket for Renegade, all-speed-inside for Further Ado, sandwiched in a pace duel for Pavlovian).
For each of the 10,000 sims, the model samples a pace shape (75% fast / 22% honest / 3% slow, as three confirmed senders make a slow pace nearly impossible), adds day-of variance, and factors for trip events (bad starting break, wide trip for outside posts, used-up clearing for outside speed on fast pace, boxed-in for inside stalkers).
