Monday Sharp Report: Pros Getting Down On Three Totals
Orioles pitcher Andrew Cashner Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Wiseguys split their four plays on Sunday, but thanks to the Dodgers (+119) they were able to turn a small profit overall. Los Angeles closed with 36% of bets, 40% of dollars and had sharp reverse line movement (+133 to +118). This spot has cashed big for wiseguys in 2018. So far this season, road dogs getting fewer than 40% of bets with RLM have gone 51-50 (50.5%) for a profit of +22.39 units and a 22.2% return on investment (ROI).
After analyzing Monday’s nine-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:10, 7:35 and 8:15 p.m. ET.
All data as of 3 p.m. ET
Atlanta Braves – Philadelphia Phillies Over 8.5
7:05 p.m. ET
The public is biased toward Overs. If an Average Joe is putting his hard-earned cash down on a total, he wants to see hits, homers, stolen bases and runs scored. It’s not fun to root for strikeouts and double plays. When public players load up on an Under, like they are in this NL East matchup, it creates rare contrarian Over value for wiseguys. Recreational bettors see a high total and two low-ERA pitchers on the mound (Foltynewicz 2.87 and Pivetta 3.72) and, not surprisingly, nearly 65% are going Under.
This lopsided Under betting has dropped the total from 9 to 8.5. That’s when sharps pounced. The wind is blowing out and hitting conditions are ideal. It’s partly cloudy and mid 70s.
Arizona Diamondbacks – Milwaukee Brewers Over 8
7:40 p.m. ET
Another contrarian Over for the Goodfellas. With Zack Greinke on the mound, 64% of bets are going Under but it accounts for only 57% of dollars, indicating predominately Average Joe Under money. Despite the majority of bets going Under, the juice on the Over has either remained frozen at -110 or risen to -120, indicating Over liability.
Baltimore Orioles – Chicago White Sox Under 9
8:10 p.m. ET
Recreational bettors see high ERAs from the two starters (Andrew Cashner’s 4.83 and Hector Santiago’s 5.29) and think easy Over. Not the wiseguys. Nearly 75% of bets are on the Over, but almost 60% of dollars are on the Under — making this total one of the top bets vs. dollars discrepancy plays of the night. This heavy Under smart money caused the total to fall from 9.5 to 9 despite three out of four bets going Over.
Remember: the betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out the Action Network MLB betting trends page.
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