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Monday Sharp Report: Pros Getting Down On Three Totals

May 21, 2018 12:37 PM EDT

Wiseguys split their four plays on Sunday, but thanks to the Dodgers (+119) they were able to turn a small profit overall. Los Angeles closed with 36% of bets, 40% of dollars and had sharp reverse line movement (+133 to +118). This spot has cashed big for wiseguys in 2018. So far this season, road dogs getting fewer than 40% of bets with RLM have gone 51-50 (50.5%) for a profit of +22.39 units and a 22.2% return on investment (ROI).

 

After analyzing Monday’s nine-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:10, 7:35 and 8:15 p.m. ET.

All data as of 3 p.m. ET

Atlanta Braves – Philadelphia Phillies Over 8.5

7:05 p.m. ET

The public is biased toward Overs. If an Average Joe is putting his hard-earned cash down on a total, he wants to see hits, homers, stolen bases and runs scored. It’s not fun to root for strikeouts and double plays. When public players load up on an Under, like they are in this NL East matchup, it creates rare contrarian Over value for wiseguys. Recreational bettors see a high total and two low-ERA pitchers on the mound (Foltynewicz 2.87 and Pivetta 3.72) and, not surprisingly, nearly 65% are going Under.

This lopsided Under betting has dropped the total from 9 to 8.5. That’s when sharps pounced. Pro players at Buckeye, Pinnacle and 5Dimes all hammered the Over 8.5, causing a trio of reverse line moves. The wind is blowing out and hitting conditions are ideal. It’s partly cloudy and mid 70s.

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Credit:

Orioles pitcher Andrew Cashner Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Josh Appelbaum on Twitter
@Josh_Insights

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