Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, September 15.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Red Sox vs Rangers Over 8 (-115, bet365 | Play to -125)
- Diamondbacks Moneyline (-152, FanDuel | Play to -160)
Red Sox vs Rangers Pick
Assuming Cody Bradford, who is in line to start, is ultimately confirmed as the Rangers starter, bet365's total of 8 for this matchup looks to provide solid value with Texas facing a below-average left-handed starter in Patrick Sandoval.
Since June 1st, the Rangers have ranked second with a wRC+ of 132 versus left-handed pitching and hold the fifth-highest expected weighted on-base average in MLB.
While the Red Sox do offer an elite bullpen, Sandoval has struggled to an xERA of 5.28 across 55 innings since returning in early July, and should struggle in this matchup.
Bradford has pitched to an xERA of 5.53 and an xFIP of 5.41 this season. He holds a Stuff+ rating of just 86, and that grade makes sense given how few swings-and-misses he has generated and how much hard contact he is allowing.
Unlike Sandoval, he's not supported by an overly effective bullpen, as Rangers relievers have struggled to an ERA of 5.44 over the last 30 days while ranking 25th in xFIP.
The Red Sox rank seventh in wRC+ versus lefties since June 1st, and though the loss of Cedanne Rafaela does downgrade the lineup (.801 OPS versus LHP), they will still offer a tough matchup for Bradford, while we obviously don't mind his absence in center field either.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (-115, bet365 | Play to -125)
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Pick
Contrary to the pillow fight taking place in the AL, the NL West race has been a dogfight, with both the Padres and Diamondbacks offering high-quality play over the last two months of the season.
Arizona managed a late rally in Monday's series opener and should be well situated for another strong offensive outing Tuesday versus Janson Junk and the Marlins' soft bullpen.
Junk has been hard-hit 39.7% of the time this season while striking out just 15.7% of batters. He's allowed batters to slug .480 on the road, which is certainly concerning as he matches up versus the Diamondbacks at batter-friendly Chase Field.
If Junk hangs in surprisingly well, the Diamondbacks could mount yet another late rally against a Marlins bullpen that has struggled to an ERA of 4.98 over the last 30 days. The underlying metrics are also far from convincing, with a 4.95 xFIP and a 6.2% strikeout-minus-walk rate over that span.
Michael Soroka was not overly effective working in bulk relief in his appearance back off the IL, but unless we downgrade him significantly based on that outing, the Diamondbacks still appear worthy of being a larger favorite in this matchup based on his 4.32 xERA and 3.72 xFIP this season.
Arizona's bullpen ranks 13th in ERA this season and has posted a 3.56 ERA over the last 30 days, which is no surprise, as the unit projects to be quite strong on paper.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-152, FanDuel | Play to -160)
