Saturday MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 3 Strikeout Totals to Play (April 10)

I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.

MLB Player Props & Picks

Domingo Germán Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)

Look, I understand that for the casual bettor, betting on unders and rooting against something is a lot less fun than rooting for something. Well, this gives you the best of both worlds. You can root against Domingo Germán as a person, and on the mound.

In Germán’s first start since missing the entire 2020 season due to suspension, he managed to last just three innings, allowing three runs and just two strikeouts against the Blue Jays.

That was against a Toronto team that has struck out at a 28.2% rate this season. He will now face a Tampa Bay Rays lineup that has improved their strike out percentage from the worst in the league at 27.9% last year, to 24.1% so far this year, 13th in the league.

Yesterday’s game got out of hand so early the Yankees were able to rest their better bullpen arms, using Lucas Luetge to cover three innings and Nick Nelson and Luis Cessa each in one. With Chad Green, Jonathan Loaisiga and Darren O’Day available in relief, I expect Aaron Bone to use a quick hook with Germán again and turn the game over to the pen before German goes over the 5.5 K’s.

Action Labs Grade: 10/10

Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130)

Trevor Rogers will make just his ninth career start on Saturday, and the young pitcher has looked pretty solid early in his career. He has a 5.91 ERA but his 4.19 FIP suggests he has been the victim of some bad luck. He also has a 12.66 K/9 rate, including six strikeouts through four innings in his first start this year.

Rogers will be facing a New York Met’s lineup that strikes out just 20.2% of the time this season, the second fewest in the league. More importantly, the Mets finished top 10 in fewest strikeouts. Rogers is a big lefty who throws his fastball 54.2% of the time.

Don Mattingly has shown a quick hook for Rogers so far in his career, allowing him to pitch more than five innings just once so far. With Rogers inability to go deep into games, despite a high K/9 rate, he has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in just four of his eight starts. He should get at least one punch out an inning, so hopefully Mattingly will give him the hook early again and keep this under.

Action Labs Grade: 10/10

José Quintana Over 3.5 Strikeouts (Odds)

I promise I will always try to include at least one over in his article for the glass half-full people out there, and I believe this is the best one on the board tonight.

In his first start as a member of the Angels, José Quintana struggled, allowing four earned runs on five hits and three runs in just 3 1/3 innings. But he managed to strike out five Houston Astros, the team that strikes out the fewest in baseball, in just those three innings.

Last season with the Cubs, Quintana managed just 10 innings, but struck out 12 batters over those 10 frames. He's posted a K/9 of at least 8.0 in four straight seasons. Quintana throws his 4-seam fastball just 39.3 percent of the time and mostly relies on his curve ball (31.1%) and sinker (20.8%).

The Blue Jays have struck out 10.5 times per game this season, the 25th most in the league. Quintana has a 29.6 K% against this Blue Jays roster and may only need to last into the fifth inning in order to go over his 3.5 strike out total.

Action Labs Grade: 7/10