MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Cardinals-Braves, 2 Other Tuesday Games
St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (46) is celebrates with center fielder Yairo Munoz (34). Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting three MLB games on Tuesday, headlined by Cardinals-Braves (7:20 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on Cubs-Reds (6:40 p.m. ET) and Brewers-Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
It’s always a good problem to have when you’re mad about a 2-1 night that should have been 3-0. Last night wiseguys cashed the Astros-Tigers over and Angels moneyline, but the Athletics blew a 4-1 lead in the eighth to steal a perfect night from the sharps.
Bad beats are part of betting. You can’t let them drive you crazy. After all, they only make the comebacks and backdoor covers that much sweeter. On to the next.
>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
6:40 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Reds (moved from +115 to +105)
On paper, this looks like a layup for the public. The Cubs are 24-14 and the Reds are 18-23. And Chicago is laying a short moneyline price? Cubbies all day, right?
If it looks too good to be true, it almost always is.
This line opened with the Cubs listed as a -125 road favorite. Currently 70% of bets are backing Chicago, yet the line has plummeted away from the Cubs (-125 to -113) and toward the Reds (+115 to +105).
What caused this peculiar movement toward the Red Legs? Sharp action, of course. Cincinnati is receiving only 30% of bets but 54% of dollars, signaling big wagers in its favor.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we also tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on Cincy, with pros getting down hard on CIN at +123, +118, +115 and +112. The fact that the payout got worse but sharps kept hitting the home team indicates supreme wiseguy confidence.
The Red Legs also find themselves in a profitable historical spot. They’re divisional dogs with a high total (9.5) and fit the top Bet Labs PRO System Betting Against the Public (+173.10 units won since 2005).
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies
7:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Brewers (moved from +111 to -114)
Recreational bettors see the Phillies as rare home dogs getting plus-money with a streaking pitcher on the mound (Jerad Eickhoff 1.50 ERA) and that’s all they need to know. And, oh yeah, Philly has won three straight while the Brewers have lost three straight. Hammer Philly to the moon.
But wiseguys are once again buying on bad news, selling on good news and betting based on value, not recency bias.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a short -120 home favorite. Nearly 60% of bets are backing the Phils, yet the line has completely flipped away from Philly (-120 to +106) and toward Milwaukee (+111 to -114).
We tracked three big steam moves on the Beermakers, with sharps crushing MIL at -103, -110 and -111, pushing them from dogs to favorites.
Milwaukee is receiving only 42% of bets but 61% of dollars, further evidence of respected bettors backing the road team and fading the trendy dog.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves
7:20 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Cardinals (moved from -110 to -125)
Average Joes are somewhat on the fence with this one. But Goodfellas have taken a clear side.
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a slight -110 road favorite, while Atlanta opened at +102. Reading between the lines, these odds indicate a virtual coin-flip game, with a slight edge to the Cardinals.
According to our betting trends, 54% of bets are leaning with the Cards. However, despite this relatively even betting, the line has skyrocketed from Red Birds -110 to -125.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move more than a cent or two if the bets are split down the middle. So the fact the line went bigly toward STL is a dead giveaway that sharps are backing the Cards.
The Cardinals are receiving only 54% of bets but 79% of dollars, another sign that big bettors are backing the road team. We’ve also seen wiseguys steam St. Louis twice across the market, first at -105 and again at -113.
We haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on the Braves.