Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Wednesday, September 16.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 TB
- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr.Over 2.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr Over 0.5 Home Runs
- Padres -1.5
- Ben Rice Alt Over 2.5 HRR
- Yankees ML
Yankees vs Twins Picks
In the final game I will be covering for my 32nd ‘MLB Leadoff’ article, the Twins and Yankees will square off on Wednesday afternoon in another spot where I heavily favor targeting player prop markets.
33-year-old veteran left-hander Carlos Rodon will get the start for New York, while righty Zebby Matthews will take the mound for the Twins.
In what has been an up-and-down 2026 campaign for Minnesota’s right-hander, with Matthews currently posting a 4.98 ERA so far, I expect this to be another tough challenge against a red-hot Yankee lineup.
In this case, I expect the Yankees’ lefty slugger Ben Rice to have a monster day at the plate versus the Twins’ 26-year-old.
In eight previous encounters between the two, New York’s 27-year-old has recorded four hits – two of which were for extra bases, with a double and a homerun.
The Yankees’ youngster put on a ton of muscle in the offseason and has quickly established himself as one of baseball’s premier power hitters — ranking seventh in all of baseball with 38 HRs in 2026 thus far.
Matthews has struggled to keep the ball in the yard for most of the season, allowing 23 homers in fewer than 120 frames on the mound.
I expect this to be a highly favorable matchup for Rice given his remarkably impressive pull-heavy left-handed power bat.
New York’s Designated Hitter is also on an absolute tear right now, so he enters Wednesday’s contest in phenomenal form.
That said, I favor backing Rice to exceed an alternate 2.5 HRR total as my primary betting angle ahead of Wednesday’s American League showdown.
As a secondary wager, I'm willing to take a shot on the Yankees moneyline as well given their far superior lineup and a rather significant edge on the mound on Wednesday afternoon.
Picks: Ben Rice Over 2.5 HRR | Yankees ML
Mets vs Orioles Picks
The Mets host the Orioles on Wednesday evening in the last of a three-game homestand at Citi Field in Queens.
In a game I expect to see plenty of offense with a starting-pitching matchup featuring two struggling arms, I favor targeting some player prop markets as my primary betting angle ahead of Wednesday’s divisional clash.
37-year-old righty veteran Chris Bassitt will take the mound for the O’s in the midst of a rocky first season in Baltimore.
The former Blue Jay has recorded an abysmal 4.88 ERA on the season thus far, along with a very inefficient 1.59 WHIP as well.
Bassitt is posting career-low pitching metrics across the board, evident through his elevated ERA, spiked WHIP and significantly diminished punch-out prowess in 2026.
The O’s right-hander has struggled with command all year long, frequently falling behind in the count early in at-bats, thus requiring he throw strikes in the zone to avoid increasing an already heightened walk rate (BB%)
Given Bassitt’s inefficiency on the bump, I expect Mets SS Francisco Lindor to have a huge day at the plate, entering Wednesday’s matchup as one of the hottest hitters in all of baseball in addition to his having already smashed a homer off of the Orioles’ vet previously.
Lindor has shown a remarkable ability to drive baseballs for power in his prior encounters versus Bassitt, posting an exceptional .529 SLG% whilst forcing the O’s righty out of his comfort zone, which is to induce weak contact.
The Mets’ star thrives against fastballs and sinkers, handling high-velocity offerings extremely well. Lindor is in scorching form at the plate, having smashed four homers over New York’s last four games.
Given Lindor’s heater at the plate and Bassitt’s spiraling form on the mound, I favor backing the Mets’ five-time All-Star to exceed both his 1.5 HRR and 1.5 TB marks as my primary betting angles for Wednesday’s NL East showdown.
Picks: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 TB | Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 HRR
Padres vs Rockies Picks
The Padres and Rockies will duke it out on Wednesday evening at the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball at Coors Field in Colorado.
26-year-old righty Mason Adams will take the mound for the Rockies, while the visiting Friars will send out former Cy Young Award winner in left-hander Robbie Ray.
Given how favorable the hitting conditions are at Coors, this is another perfect spot to target some player-prop markets.
I fully expect San Diego superstar Fernando Tatis Jr to thrive on Wednesday night, building upon what has been an insane heater at the plate for the 27-year-old since the All-Star break.
In 52 games post-break, Tatis Jr is batting .312 with 64 hits, 16 homers and 40 RBIs following the Dominican having recorded career-low metrics across the board over the first half of the 2026 season.
According to BARTOLO — a new statistical baseball model generated by the Action Network’s Sean Zerillo — Adams has allowed a whopping 2.47 home run rate (HR/9) in 2026 thus far.
In addition to his sizable susceptibility to heavy damage from opposing hitters this season, the Rockies’ 26-year-old boasts a .601 xERA (Expected ERA), which is quite concerning as well heading into a matchup with a scorching Padres’ lineup.
For two player prop betting angles ahead of Wednesday evening’s National League clash, I favor backing Tatis Jr to both exceed his 2.5 HRR mark, and to also smash a homer.
For a third wager, I'm willing to take a shot on the Padres runline as well given their sizable starting-pitching edge on Wednesday to go along with a far superior lineup.
Picks: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 HRR | Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs | Padres -1.5
