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MLB Sharp Report: Pros Targeting Two Totals, One Favorite on Sunday

Credit:

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Gerrit Cole.

  • There's tons of sports to bet on today, and with The Masters ending in the early afternoon, baseball should receive more attention than originally anticipated.
  • Using The Action Network's betting tools, we've identified how sharp bettors have targeted three MLB games.

What a wild Sunday of sports we have on our hands. Most people aren’t happy with The Masters being moved to the morning due to weather concerns, but perhaps they don’t realize that they can now focus on afternoon baseball, basketball and hockey.

Sharp bettors don’t really give a darn what sports are going on when, though; if there’s value, they’ll find it.

Here’s what the wise guys have been up to for today’s baseball slate.


>> All odds as of 9 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox

1:05 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 10.5 to 10)

Fenway Park has been like Coors Field so far this year, as at least 10 runs have been scored in all four games that have been played there this season. Despite the total opening at a lofty 10.5, it was taken by more than 70% of bettors in hopes that the run scoring would continue.

Sharp bettors weren’t in that boat, though.

The total has dropped to 10 across the market, getting as low as 9.5 in some spots. After an initial wave of sharp action on the over last night, there have been three consecutive bet signals on the under. If we look to our percentages, we also see that the 71% of bets on the over account for a measly 11% of the cash. No wonder the total has dropped.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals

1:35 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 7 to 7.5)

We have ourselves a showdown of aces in D.C. today as Pittsburgh’s Jameson Taillon goes up against Washington’s Max Scherzer. Taillon may not be considered one of the league’s elite pitchers yet, but he is certainly a promising young talent. Scherzer…well, yeah, we know he’s pretty good.

With two arms of this caliber facing off, 57% of bettors are on the under, making it one of the most popular plays of the day — yet all signs point to sharp activity on the over.

The 43% of bets on the over account for 67% of the money, and three bet signals have been triggered on the over.

If you’re wondering why that is the case, look no further than the weather. The temperature will be pushing 80 degrees, and winds of 10-12 mph will be blowing out to left-center. The Weather Rating in D.C. of 73 (out of 100) is the highest of the day.

Runs would normally be considered hard to come by in a premium pitching matchup like this, but sharp bettors are accounting for the favorable offensive weather conditions.

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners

4:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Astros (moved from -145 to -170)

The Astros are an excellent baseball team. Despite winning a lot of games, though, they’re generally an unprofitable betting option. Why? Because they’re often sizable favorites, and books can shade their lines with the confidence that they’ll still get action on Houston regardless.

The books didn’t set the opening line for today’s game high enough, apparently, and they got hit hard with Astros money as a result.

With Gerrit Cole taking the mound for Houston against Seattle’s Marco Gonzales, bets are split fairly evenly, yet Houston’s 52% share of tickets accounts for 68% of money wagered, forcing the books to adjust their lines.

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