MLB Underdogs Off to Worst Start in Recorded History

MLB Underdogs Off to Worst Start in Recorded History article feature image

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Wagering on MLB underdogs early in the season is typically prudent. The market isn't quite at equilibrium yet, so these plus-money assets are more likely to be mispriced.

But this season, that hasn't been the case. In fact, far from it.

Underdogs are off to their worst-ever start to a season in recorded history. Our proprietary Action Labs data has tracked information since 2005.

Had a bettor wagered $100 on every underdog through the first 14 games of the season, he or she would be down about $2,400.

That's by far the worst clip on record.

Worst Starts for MLB Underdogs Since 2005

Had you wagered on every underdog through 14 games since the 2022 MLB season, you'd be down just under $4,300. This data is courtesy of our director of research Evan Abrams.

The data incorporates teams that close as underdogs, not teams that opened as such.

While this season has indicated a statistical anomaly, it's impossible to extrapolate the data into broader context. This trend should neither persuade or dissuade you from making wagers. It's a small sample size, but an interesting one at that.

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