Friday’s MLB Over/Under: Handicapping White Sox-Twins Game 1

Friday’s MLB Over/Under: Handicapping White Sox-Twins Game 1 article feature image

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Reynaldo Lopez
and Jose Berrios

Betting odds: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

  • Over/Under: 8.5
  • First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
  • Probable Pitchers: Reynaldo Lopez (7-9, 3.94 ERA) vs. Jose Berrios (11-11, 3.93 ERA)

Note: This is Game 1 of a doubleheader

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 100-72-4, +20.45 units

Yesterday’s Result: Indians-Royals Over 9.5 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

When you reach a starting pitcher’s final start, there can be other variables at play that throw him off his usual tendencies.

Fortunately, I don’t believe we have to worry about that in this instance when the White Sox and Twins play the first game of their doubleheader Friday afternoon.

There’s a lot to like about Reynaldo Lopez’s performance of late, and all indications are he’ll remain strong in his last assignment of 2018.

The former Nationals farmhand is looking as dominant as ever, amassing a 3-0 record and 1.13 ERA in his past six starts — the previous five of which went in the books as a quality start, with Lopez allowing no more than one run in each outing.

But it’s not just his excellent work throughout the past several weeks that has me backing the under here: I think I have a good beat on him mentally as he wraps up his second campaign with the White Sox.

After his last start — an impressive win over the Cubs and former teammate Jose Quintana — Lopez said he has a “goal to finish this season with [his] ERA below 4.00” and mentioned he’s aware of where he’s at (3.94). Lopez also specifically added: “I want to finish the season strong.”

One other interesting item that came from the Chicago right-hander is that he said how “when you’re facing another Latino, it’s always an extra excitement” (referring to Quintana).

Well, that’s another positive for Lopez then, as his counterpart in this one — Puerto Rican native Jose Berrios — is also Latino.

Aside from that, Berrios, a prideful pitcher himself who will be looking to end the year on a high note, has been consistently solid for much of his first-career All-Star season.

That has especially been the case at Target Field, with Berrios notching an 8-4 record to go with a 3.15 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .204 batting average against in 16 starts at home.

This is the continuation of a career-long trend, as the 24-year-old has registered a far better ERA in Minnesota (3.72) than on the road (5.31) in his three years in the big leagues.

We’ll also hope Berrios can continue his mastery of the White Sox. In eight career meetings, he’s 6-1 with a shiny 2.24 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. This season, Berrios is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in four outings opposite Chicago.

Play: UNDER 8.5 (-120)