We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
I'm 31-21 betting Triple-A baseball this season, good for +22.83 units of profit!
Oklahoma City Comets @ Charlotte Knights
Tuesday, 6:05 PM ET
Weird series here, as Oklahoma City makes the long cross-coast trek for an International League-Pacific League matchup.
As mentioned, Oklahoma City is still in the mix for the PCL first-half lead, but it’ll need to have a big week against Charlotte to keep ground with Sacramento.
That said, the Comets got some great news with the call-up of Braden Montgomery. Meanwhile, Charlotte has lost two of its best players in the past two weeks (Jacob Gonzalez, Joe Rock) — this week could feature a very watered-down version of the Knights.
Charlotte could be very overpriced in this series. The Knights just completed a six-game sweep of Durham last week, so they’re 35-28 entering this series. If this series is competitively priced, I’ll be all over Oklahoma City.
While the Comets don’t have a ton of pitching, neither does Charlotte. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City’s lineup blows the Knights out of the water.
The Comets are loaded, as they have been all season, behind guys like James Tibbs III.
I will be looking for spots to play Oklahoma City all week.
Pick: Oklahoma City ML
Sacramento River Cats @ Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Tuesday, 8:05 PM ET
At the Triple-A level, the winner of the first half of the season clinches the first playoff spot. As we close in on the home stretch of the first half, it’s a four-team race in the Pacific Coast League (PCL).
Sacramento is up by a game on Las Vegas. Las Vegas has a one-game lead on Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City has a 1.5-game lead on Albuquerque.
All four squads have a reasonable shot to win the first half, and it will largely depend on what happens in each series this week.
Based on some recent roster moves, I believe Sacramento is in the best position to claim the title via a big performance in this week’s road series.
Sugar Land is the worst team in the PCL, so we might not get any playable prices on the River Cats. But I’m hoping we get them on the ML in the -150 to -160 range at some point.
The Double-A affiliate for San Francisco is Richmond, which is having an insane season in the Eastern League at 37-19. Over the past month, the Giants have promoted five or six of the best players from Richmond up to Sacramento, and the River Cats' roster is now overflowing with upside.
Sacramento has arguably the best starter at the Triple-A level in Carson Whisenhunt, and the Cats have two other solid rotation pieces in Tugboat Wilkinson and Joe Whitman.
Sacramento’s offense has improved drastically with the addition of guys like Scott Bandura and Turner Hill. Nate Furman has also had a great season. Jared Oliva has been rehabbing with Triple-A Sacramento.
Meanwhile, Sugar Land’s roster has been plundered, with Josh Hader and Alimber Santa called up to Houston (Hunter Brown might be next). For the time being, the Space Cowboys are a collection of average hitters and pitchers, and they’ll be at a big disadvantage in this series.
Pick: Sacramento ML
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Oklahoma City Comets ML (@ Charlotte, 6:05 PM ET)
- Sacramento River Cats ML (@ Sugar Land, 8:05 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A Baseball
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
