NASCAR at Kentucky Odds, Pick: The Mispriced Driver to Bet Immediately for Sunday’s Quaker State 400

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Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Bowman, driver of the #88 ChevyGoods.com/Adams Polishes Chevrolet

Jul 06, 2020, 10:59 AM EDT

Kevin Harvick took the checkered flag at Indianapolis less than 24 hours ago, but odds are already available for Sunday’s Quaker State 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, FS1) at Kentucky Speedway, so it’s time to turn our attention to this week’s race.

There are some soft openers for Sunday’s race, and one driver in particular is so vastly mispriced that I wasted no time jumping on him immediately.

Here’s the driver I’ve already bet for the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky.

NASCAR at Kentucky Odds, Betting Pick


Odds as of Monday 10:30 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Kentucky is a 1.5-mile racetrack, but was repaved in 2016, resulting in a smooth surface that does not wear tires. Therefore, bettors should not put too much emphasis on results from Atlanta Motor Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Both of those circuits are 1.5 miles in length — just like Kentucky — but Atlanta and Homestead have very abrasive surfaces that produce significant tire wear.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway are the tracks to hone in on from a comparison perspective.  Both 1.5 milers, and like Kentucky, they have much smoother surfaces, so data from these races should be much more representative of what we see on Sunday.

In those three races (two at Charlotte and one at Vegas), Alex Bowman had the fifth-best driver rating, the second-most fast laps and the most laps led.

Bowman has shown significant speed at tracks similar to Kentucky this season, yet is just 40-1 to win the Quaker State 400 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

There’s absolutely no way that 15 drivers should be listed with better odds than Bowman. In fact, a savvy NASCAR bettor and DFS player friend of mine texted me Monday morning, saying, “Who thought Bowman and Cole Custer should be the same odds?”

Custer is also 40-1.

The No. 88 Chevy is in the top 12 in owner points, so he’ll have, at the very least, a top-12 starting spot for Sunday’s race with the chance to start at the front as well.

This opportunity is also a prime example of why shopping for the best odds is so important in sports betting.

Bowman is 40-1 at DraftKings, but just 16-1 at bet365.

I love him at 40-1, but would pass entirely at 16-1. Anything 25-1 or better is worth a bet for Bowman, making 40-1 a screaming value.

In addition to betting the 88 to win outright, I’m going to take the 10-1 odds for a Bowman top-three finish at DraftKings.

Alex Bowman: +4000 to Win
Get a $1,000 sign-up bonus now!

BET NOW AT DRAFTKINGS

CO, NJ, PA, IN, WV only.
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