NASCAR Odds, Picks: Best Championship Futures, Win Total Over/Unders for 2023 Cup Series Season
Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: Martin Truex Jr., driver of the #19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota, celebrates
With sports media spending last week covering the Super Bowl, many missed the most important news of the week: the debut of Action Network’s NASCAR podcast, “Running Hot” with Nick Giffen and Stevie Young!
Fortunately for NASCAR fans, you can find Nick and Stevie’s 2023 championship futures and win total picks in the first episode of “Running Hot.”
And if you’re more of a reader, here’s a quick recap of the NASCAR picks they covered.
NASCAR Championship Picks
Ryan Blaney to Win Championship (+1100)
Blaney was first in green flag speed and raw speed last season, but was unlucky not to win a race. Given how good he was last year, 11-1 seems like solid value.
Martin Truex Jr. to Win Championship (+1400)
Truex did not make the playoffs last year because he did not win a single race, but finished the regular season fourth in points.
Truex, however, just won the Busch Light Clash two weeks ago, ranking first in raw speed and green flag speed.
Of course, the Clash is a truly unique exhibition, but that said, if Truex continues to perform well the value here will dip.
Giffen likes Truex to win the title down to 12-1.
NASCAR Over/Under Win Total Picks
Denny Hamlin Over 2.5 Wins (+130)
Hamlin exhibited great speed in the final races of the 2022 NASCAR season and performed well at the Clash, finishing in ninth place.
He is also set up for success in terms of utilizing that speed with half of the races in 2023 being run at short and flat tracks.
Additionally, Kyle Busch has left Joe Gibbs Racing, so Hamlin should get the team’s best equipment.
Giffen and Young like the value of Hamlin over 2.5 wins at plus-money.
Chase Elliot Under 3.5 Wins (+110)
Chase Elliot was fifth in raw speed and fourth in green flag speed last year, yet he is the favorite to win the 2023 NASCAR championship by a healthy margin.
We anticipate wins being more spread out this year and do not envision any driver winning four or more races.
Daniel Suarez Under 0.5 wins (+130)
Last season, Suarez experienced moderate success on intermediate tracks, but was never the driver to beat.
He did dominate at COTA and won at Sonoma, but then fell off when racing at road courses later in the year.
Giffen’s model has Suárez favored for zero wins on the season when handicapping his win probabilities for each race.
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