NASCAR Odds & Picks for Homestead: How to Bet Chase Elliott vs. Kyle Larson

NASCAR Odds & Picks for Homestead: How to Bet Chase Elliott vs. Kyle Larson article feature image

Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 Chevrolet

The NASCAR Cup Series is at Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Dixie Vodka 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC).

Homestead is a fairly unique track on the circuit and Darlington is the closest comparable track.

Homestead is a 1.5-mile, steeply banked track with variable banking from 18-to-20 degrees in the corners. Those corners are unique as well, with turns 1 and 2, as well as turns 3 and 4, being 180-degree corners.

This combination of factors helps differentiate Homestead from traditional 1.5-mile tracks, and favors a unique driving style that suits some drivers better than others.

I'm eyeing one such driver in a matchup between teammates.

NASCAR Pick for Homestead

*Odds as of Saturday evening

DraftKings has a matchup between Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) teammates Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott.

Both drivers are listed at -110, meaning DraftKings views this as a 50/50 toss-up when removing the juice.

In my opinion, Larson should be the clear favorite.

DraftKings is probably looking at starting position, which favors Elliott (third) over Larson (fifth), as well as 10-lap average time. There, Elliott ranks sixth and Larson is ninth.

I'm not really worried about either of those metrics.

I'd rather look at tire falloff over a long run. Homestead chews up tires, so it all comes down to tire management.

The difference between Larson's 10- and 30-lap average was less than half a second. Elliott's falloff was much more pronounced as he lost nearly a full second between those averages.

Additionally, Larson is just flat out better here. He's finished inside the top five in four of his past six Homestead races despite running five of those with Chip Ganassi Racing instead of HMS.

Larson's two finishes outside the top five are also misleading because he was running inside the top five before encountering problems in both of those races.

Elliott, meanwhile, has an average finish of 9.0 over his past six Homestead races, all incident free. Only two of those were inside the top five.

Give me the driver who is tailor made for this track and had less falloff over the long run all day.

The Bet: Kyle Larson -110 over Chase Elliott | Bet to: -120

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