NASCAR Odds, Picks & Predictions for Bristol: 3 Matchup Bets for Sunday Night’s Food City Dirt Race
Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Reddick, driver of the #8 3CHI Chevrolet
Bettors are able to take advantage of a rare weekend with multiple practice sessions and even heat races while digesting odds for tonight’s Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway (7 p.m. ET, FOX).
This opportunity helps us find spots where books haven’t adjusted enough to the on-track activity.
With the outright market quite saturated, it’s time to turn to some matchups to find value for tonight’s race.
NASCAR at Bristol Dirt Picks
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Tyler Reddick (-115) over Alex Bowman
This one is a severely mispriced line.
Reddick was far and away fastest in his qualifying group, while Bowman ran a distant third.
Reddick was faster in every metric in opening practice, and faster over five, 10 and 15 consecutive laps in final practice.
We can ignore times beyond 15 laps in final practice as those were made by Reddick earlier in the session when the track wasn’t as quick, whereas Bowman made his 20-plus lap run later in the session as the track sped up.
With the high line the preferred lane, especially at night, this race should set up perfectly for Reddick.
Bowman won’t be bad, but Reddick should be a heavy favorite. Caesars‘ own outright lines agree as they have Reddick at +800 to win and Bowman at +1800.
My model has Reddick as 68.7% favorite, so I’m comfortable betting Reddick down to -160.
Justin Haley (-110) over Austin Cindric
Caesars has another juicy matchup where on-track activity shows one driver should be more heavily favored than the other, but the odds don’t reflect that.
Haley led flag to flag in his qualifying heat. Meanwhile, Cindric came home sixth in his, beating out only three other struggling drivers.
Haley was faster than Cindric over all metrics in final practice, which came in the evening while practice was most similar to race conditions.
Haley is a 60.6% favorite in my model, so feel free to bet him down to -125.
Joey Logano (-130) over Martin Truex, Jr.
I’m going three for three here in picking matchups at Caesars Sportsbook.
In this case, Truex has struggled all weekend while Logano has been one of the top cars and the line is nowhere near reflective of that.
Logano was well ahead of Truex in every metric in both opening and final practice.
In qualifying, Logano ran in second place in his heat from the drop of the green flag until the checkered.
Truex, on the other hand, finished in eighth place. The only driver that finished behind him was Ross Chastain, who led four laps but spun right before the checkered flag.
Logano also gained experience by running the Truck race, while Truex sat this year out after running in last year’s Truck race on the dirt.
In another mismatch, my model favors Logano by a two-to-one margin.
Logano is a good bet all the way down to -160.
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