NASCAR Odds, Picks & Predictions for Bristol: The Top-10 Bet to Make for Sunday’s Food City Dirt Race
Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images. Pictured: Todd Gilliland, driver of the #38 Frontline Enterprises Inc. Ford
Drivers are set to get down and dirty for 250 laps on Sunday night for the 2022 Food City Dirt Race (7 p.m. ET, FOX).
With only one Cup race on dirt since 1970, we don't have a lot of data to use. However, the Truck Series has raced on dirt nine times since 2013.
Several Cup drivers have raced in these Truck races, some with the intent to claim a victory thanks to an extensive dirt-racing background, others to get experience with an unfamiliar form of racing.
And a few drivers were regulars in the Truck Series for multiple years before moving up to the Cup level, meaning they have several races on dirt under their belts.
That's exactly where I'm looking with my best mid-week prop bet.
NASCAR at Bristol Dirt Pick
*Odds as of Wednesday afternoon
One of those Truck Series regulars is Cup rookie Todd Gilliland. He raced four full-time seasons, two with Kyle Busch Motorsports and two with Front Row Motorsports.
During those years, Gilliland participated in four dirt races: two at Eldora, one at Bristol and one at Knoxville.
He had three top-five finishes in those four races, one at each of the three tracks. That shows he can get it done on a variety of dirt tracks.
Diving in deeper, if we look at his average running position for each dirt race and compare it to his average running position for the whole season, we'll see Gilliland ran better than his season-long average in all four dirt races.
| Race | Season | Dirt |
|---|---|---|
| Eldora '18 | 9.6 | 8.2 |
| Eldora '19 | 10.2 | 5.7 |
| Bristol '21 | 8.8 | 8.7 |
| Knoxville '21 | 8.8 | 4.5 |
On average, he ran 2.6 positions closer to the front on dirt than at all races combined.
In addition, this race last year produced some chaos. Seven incidents collected 24 unique cars (30 cars total, some were involved in more than one incident).
All it takes is for Gilliland to continue to show a high level of performance on dirt and avoid the chaos and he could be in the mix for a top 10.
This +700 line can be found at multiple books including BetMGM and FanDuel, so I don't see any reason to bet him below this number.
The Bet: Todd Gilliland to finish in the top 10 (+700)
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