NASCAR Odds, Pick, Prediction for Pocono: The 15-1 Best Bet for Sunday’s M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 (July 24)

NASCAR Odds, Pick, Prediction for Pocono: The 15-1 Best Bet for Sunday’s M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 (July 24) article feature image

Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Ross Chastain

  • There's a misprice with tons of value for Sunday's NASCAR Race at Pocono
  • P.J. Walsh breaks down the best value bet below.

Two articles from me this weekend? What did we do to deserve this?

Well, if it's anything like yesterday, you should stop reading right now.

After betting on and writing a quick piece on why I liked Erik Jones at 60-1 odds to win today's NASCAR race at Pocono, both Petty GMS cars were hit with big penalties for violating rules regarding rocker box assemblies.

#TheBrand is strong with this one.

But alas, there are still more bets for the making (and ruining) for today's M&M's Fan Appreciation 400 (3 p.m. ET, USA), including one 15-1 outright that I can't pass up.

NASCAR Pick for Pocono

*Odds as of Sunday morning

I just don't understand this line.

Ross Chastain posted the single-fastest lap in Saturday's practice while also running the top five-lap average speed as well.

Simply put: Chastain was incredibly fast in practice, and you can make a valid argument that the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevy was the best car yesterday.

Now, Chastain will have to start at the rear of the field after making unapproved repairs to his car, but this too much of an overreaction in my mind.

According to live NASCAR at Pocono odds, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin are the race favorites at +550 (BetMGM) with Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson right behind at +600.

Chastain has two wins, has led the third-most laps and has run the fourth-most fast laps this season. He has already proven he has the speed week in and week out to run with the other top drivers, and he's now available at 15-1 after about as good of a practice session that a driver can hope for?

All jokes aside, all we can do as NASCAR bettors is get our money down based on the information available at the time. No matter how it goes from there, win, lose or speeding on pit road during the final pit stop, it's out of our hands.

I'll happily grab the qualifying discount on a driver who should be priced with the favorites but is ripe for the picking at 15-1 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The bet: Chastain (+1500) to Win

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