Moore: Ranking the Most Interesting 2019-20 NBA Title Odds

Moore: Ranking the Most Interesting 2019-20 NBA Title Odds article feature image
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Photo credit: USAToday Sports. Pictured: Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard and Stephen Curry

  • The Golden State Warriors (+175) are the favorites to win the 2019-20 NBA title, followed by the Milwaukee Bucks (+450) and Boston Celtics (+700).
  • Matt Moore dives into the full list of odds at Westgate and ranks which ones are the most interesting based on 2019 free agency buzz.

Westgate got ahead of the game and released odds on the 2019-20 NBA title this week. And boy, there were some eye-opening numbers. This summer sees free agency for Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler and Kemba Walker, along with a likely trade of Anthony Davis. It's going to be a wild summer and maybe, finally, possibly, things could break a little more even after five years of Warriors dominance.

Here's a look at the most interesting odds. Not the best value… but the most interesting.

1. New York Knicks (16-1)

There's just still the ongoing sense that at least Durant is headed to the Orange and Blue. That's bizarre and makes no sense, but that's been the sense all along.

Durant would have to add someone else. Is it possible there's been a conversation held about multiple guys teaming up like the Heat in 2011? That's one of the questions league folks are asking, completely speculatively. There's just no real confidence that Durant would leave and go to a train wreck of a franchise with no one to help him.

What's most interesting about this number is that it blatantly and explicitly suggests confidence that Durant is not re-signing with the Warriors. The Knicks remain a train wreck, but they're an iconic train wreck — and like the Lakers and Clippers, that continues to matter.


2. Los Angeles Clippers (16-1)

Speak of the devil, these are great odds. The Clippers have done everything you want in the last six months. They cleaned their books while staying competitive. They showcased great coaching and a great culture. Owner Steve Ballmer has been out front talking about getting a new arena. Their team was fun and competitive in the first round. They were the kind of team it looked like it would be fun to join.

While the Lakers sat at home melting as their franchise continued its journey into the Heart of Darkness, the Clippers showed the world and important prospective free agents that they can play in L.A., be megastars and be part of an organization they get to own without the politics of the Lakers.

If the Clippers were competitive without a clear best player, imagine if they add Kawhi Leonard or Kevin Durant. Leonard remains the most-likely target, as rumors persist that they are the frontrunners for him regardless of what happens with Toronto. (I'm skeptical on this point. Playoff runs bring guys together, and if the Raptors make a serious run in the Conference Finals or Finals, that can change things.)


3. Golden State Warriors (7-4)

So they're still the favorites despite the possibility of losing Durant, and I gotta tell you… I agree with it. Let's say Durant does take off. The Warriors would be counted out, with a core that won 73 games and was one win away from back-to-back titles.

That's exactly where you want to get in on the Warriors. And if Durant returns, they're right back where they are this year. But if Durant leaves, this would be a great contrarian play because so much of the public will jump on the other prospective challengers.


4. Boston Celtics (7-1)

So a team that really struggled this year, with Kyrie Irving possibly departing in free agency, currently down in a series to the No. 1 team with the prospective MVP, is just 7-1? That's a little surprising.

But then, you have to figure in the Anthony Davis trade. If the Celtics pull that deal off, they hit top-level immediately. In that scenario, they keep Irving and add Davis, and a lot of the malcontentment that plagued them this year fades away as the rotation becomes shorter.

The mode here is KD leaves plus Kyrie stays plus the Celtics trade for AD. That's all plausible, and at that point, 7-1 is the best odds you'll get before at least January, and probably after March of next year.


5. Brooklyn Nets (30-1)

This is the best number on the board to me. There's a lot of conversation about the Nets being the Clippers East, in that they showcased a great organization under Sean Marks, a great coach in Kenny Atkinson, a fun team with good players, cap space, the second-best market in the league, a team you can make your own and the benefit of playing in New York but not playing for James Dolan.

There are a lot of whispers about Irving potentially having more interest in Brooklyn than New York. If Durant stays and Irving leaves, Brooklyn might be the spot, and 30-1 is an incredible return.

Does that put them above Milwaukee? Or Philly? Or even Boston? Maybe not, but if they were to add two major stars or if D'Angelo Russell makes a massive jump, they're going to be in the discussion. This one is compelling because it's high enough to trigger notice and low enough to be potentially valuable.


6. Denver Nuggets (25-1)

So the Nuggets can still lose to Portland, and if they don't, they are likely getting smashed in the next round. However, this team has had such an impressive playoff run, answering so many questions, and Jamal Murray is 22, Gary Harris is 24 and Nikola Jokic is 23.

They can manufacture some cap room by exercising Paul Millsap's team option and clearing one contract (Will Barton or Mason Plumlee) in a cap-dump trade. They will add Michael Porter Jr., who continues to impress coaches in workouts. The Nuggets are a longshot for a reason, but they've also been undervalued in playoff settings and have answered the bell.


7. Houston Rockets (10-1)

Chris Paul looks like he's taken a step backward. If they lose this series, it'll likely be in less than seven, representing a step backward from last year. If they do win, they’ll be trying for a once-in-a-lifetime gap shoot with a roster that’s going to have a difficult time sustaining success as it ages.

Let's be clear. There's not much they can do this summer. They have their core with Paul, James Harden and Clint Capela, and all their moves are on the margins. Austin Rivers was a good find; Danuel House might develop. But the odds are good that next year's team isn't as good as this one. So Houston being this high is interesting.


8. Milwaukee Bucks (9-2)

These are the second-highest odds, and they might be the best number you'll get on the Bucks. If they get out of the two East rounds and somehow beat the Warriors (they've given the Dubs trouble), they will of course instantly be the favorites in 2019-20 with the MVP and a returning core (depending on the Khris Middleton and Malcolm Brogdon situations).

Giannis isn't getting any worse. Middleton's not going downhill. Brook Lopez is stable. Their ownership is locked in. They will have trade upgrade options. They are in great shape. This is the best value for a serious contender that doesn't need a major upgrade in free agency or trade.


9. Philadelphia 76ers (10-1)

The Sixers have the same odds as Houston? With Jimmy Butler over 30 years old a free agent along with Tobias Harris? A creaky bench with no real cap options? The continuing questions about Ben Simmons' game and his chemistry with Joel Embiid? With Embiid's overall health situation constantly being a question mark? I would very much like the opportunity to fade this number.


10. Toronto Raptors (20-1)

I mean… they were the second-best team in the East and will give Kawhi Leonard a lot of good reasons to stay. I get it, but it certainly seems like this number represents a sense of doubt that he'll stay with the Raptors.


11. Oklahoma City Thunder (25-1)

I will not get suckered into believing in this team again. I will not get suckered into believing in this team again. I will not get suckered into believing in this team again. I will not get suckered into believing in this team again. I will not get suckered into believing in this team again.


12. Utah Jazz (40-1)

The only reason this one stands out is the analytics always love this team, and there's a prospective Mike Conley deal that was discussed at the deadline but couldn't get done that would radically change their biggest weakness on offense while keeping their defense stable.

There's a really good chance this team leaps into Nuggets/Rockets sub-contender status depending on what happens with Durant if they add a playmaker who can actually hit a jumpshot.

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Sean Treppedi
Mar 28, 2024 UTC