76ers vs. Knicks Odds, Expert Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (February 5)

76ers vs. Knicks Odds

The Philadelphia 76ers face the New York Knicks on Sunday evening at Madison Square Garden. The season series is tied at 1-1 with each team winning and covering on the road. The totals have also split, with the over hitting in New York’s home loss on Christmas Day.

The Knicks are playing the second game of a back-to-back after an overtime loss to the Los Angeles Clippers while the Sixers are on their second game of a three-game road trip.

Let’s look at the odds and I’ll give my betting prediction for 76ers vs. Knicks.

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Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have been on a tear since the start of the new year. Philadelphia is 13-3 straight up and 9-7 against the spread in 2023, thanks to highly efficient offense led by James Harden as the facilitator.

Joel Embiid is playing some of the best basketball of his career offensively and is leading the league in scoring as a result. With Tyrese Maxey coming off the bench, the Sixers have found their groove offensively and boast an abundance of scoring threats in both units.

However, Philadelphia’s defense has seen a significant drop off during its recent stretch. Before Jan. 1, the Sixers ranked fifth in Adjusted Defensive Rating, according to Dunks and Threes. Since then, they’ve had one of the worst defenses in the league, falling to ninth.

Despite ranking just 26th in Pace, Philadelphia is 12-4 to the over in 2023 — a result of their spotty defense and elite offense.

New York Knicks

The Knicks defense has continued to struggle without Mitchell Robinson over the past seven games. Backup center Isaiah Hartenstein is a good matchup defender, but he lacks the elite rim protection that Robinson provides.

Jericho Sims is even more of a drop off. His on/off splits are alarming. Sims is in the fifth percentile among all players in Opponent Offensive Rating and opponents' ratings increase by +7.8 points when he’s on the court, according to Cleaning the Glass.

The lack of protection has shown up in the team's defensive numbers. When Robinson went down on Jan. 18, the Knicks ranked 11th in Adjusted Defensive Rating. Since his injury, they’re down to 16th.

Robinson’s absence can be felt on the defensive side, but much less so offensively. New York ranked ninth in Adjusted Offensive Rating before his injury and is 10th after. However, despite falling down a spot in the rankings, the Knicks offense has improved by +0.6 points per 100 possessions.

76ers-Knicks Pick

I like the over in this game based on the recent play of both offenses compared to their respective defenses. The slow pace from both teams is some cause for concern, but the lack of defense is enough to make up for that.

This is also a good matchup based on both teams’ respective home and away splits. The Sixers are 15-8 to the over on the road, while the Knicks are 16-12 to the over at home.

Six of the past eight Knicks games and four of the past six Sixers games have gone over the total. In the past four meetings, the over is 3-1 and the past two in New York have also gone over. I like this line up to 227.5.

Pick: Over 226.5 | Play to 227.5

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