3 NBA Props for Sunday: LeBron Over/Under 38.5 Points?

3 NBA Props for Sunday: LeBron Over/Under 38.5 Points? article feature image

Greg M. Cooper – USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LeBron James.

This article offers data-driven analysis on notable NBA player prop bets, often incorporating The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights.

Sunday’s analysis will cover the following three props for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals featuring the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics at 8:30 p.m. ET:

  • Jeff Green (Cavaliers) over/under 12.5 points
  • LeBron James (Cavaliers) over/under 38.5 points
  • Jayson Tatum (Celtics) over/under 2.5 assists

Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool.


Jeff Green Under 12.5 Points (+120)

8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

Green will replace Kevin Love in the starting lineup, but this line feels a bit inflated. Green’s eclipsed 12.5 points just once in his past eight games, and he’s posted a usage rate of just 15.6% this series. He didn’t see a noticeable bump in usage with Love out of the lineup during the regular season, averaging just 11.1 points over those 19 games. The fact that we’re getting better than even money on this prop is enticing.

LeBron James Over 38.5 Points (-114)

8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

This is an absolutely massive prop to take the over on, but there are reasons to believe in LeBron in Game 7. He’s dominated in elimination games since 2011, averaging 36.6 points per game, and he’s scored at least 45 points in both of the elimination games he’s faced during this season’s playoffs. LeBron’s coming off a usage rate of 40.2% in Game 6 and should see a similar workload in Game 7 with Love on the sidelines.

Jayson Tatum Under 2.5 Assists (-130)

8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

This prop came through for me in Game 6 and I’m looking to double down in Game 7. Tatum has not exactly displayed much playmaking ability during his rookie season, averaging just 1.9 assists per 36 minutes during the regular season, and he’s eclipsed the 2.5-assist threshold in just two of the six games of this series.

All lines accurate as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 27.