The Atlanta Hawks (18-21) and Denver Nuggets (25-12) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:00 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver, Colo. The game will be broadcast live on FDSSE.
The Nuggets are 1.5-point favorites over the Hawks on the spread (Nuggets -1.5), with the over/under set at 235.5 total points. Denver is a -120 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Atlanta is +100 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Hawks vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Friday, January 9.
Hawks vs Nuggets Prediction
- Hawks vs Nuggets pick: Hawks +1.5 (-110)
My Nuggets vs Hawks best bet is on Atlanta to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Hawks vs Nuggets Odds
| Hawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 235.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 235.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
Hawks vs Nuggets NBA Preview
The Atlanta Hawks begin a four-game Western Conference road trip as a very different team. In a franchise-altering move, Atlanta sent Trae Young to the Washington Wizards in exchange for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert.
If the deal is officially finalized before tipoff, the Hawks will take the floor without the player who defined the franchise for the past seven seasons.
Even without Young for most of this season, Atlanta has shown it can compete. Jalen Johnson has emerged as the centerpiece, averaging 23.5 points, 10.3 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker has provided consistent scoring at 20.4 points per night.
McCollum, who could step now into a larger role, is averaging 18.8 points this season.
Kristaps Porzingis adds another layer of intrigue, especially in this matchup. The 7-foot-2 big man is averaging 17.1 points, and while his minutes have been limited since returning from illness, his size and shooting ability could be a major factor against a depleted Denver frontcourt.
The Nuggets return home after a 3-4 road trip and remain shorthanded. Nikola Jokic is still sidelined with a knee injury, along with backup center Jonas Valanciunas and wing Cam Johnson.
Denver has survived by going small and leaning heavily on Jamal Murray, who is playing some of the best basketball of his career. Murray is averaging 26 points, 11.5 assists and 6.8 rebounds in the four games since Jokic went down, including a career-high 17 assists in Wednesday’s win over Boston.
Aaron Gordon has also returned from a hamstring injury and is contributing 18.4 points per game, but the Nuggets are clearly operating without their usual margin for error.
Hawks vs Nuggets Prediction, Betting Analysis
This matchup fits squarely into Evan Abrams’ “Small NBA Road Dogs Against Public” system. Atlanta enters as a slight road underdog, a spot where public bettors typically gravitate toward the home favorite, especially a well-known team like Denver.
With the spread short and the Nuggets still carrying name recognition despite Jokic’s absence, the market appears tilted toward the home side.
That creates value on a competitive visiting team that has motivation, a tighter rotation and matchup advantages, particularly with Porzingis facing a Nuggets team without true center depth.
In these situations, inflated lines often undervalue the road team’s ability to keep the game close or win outright. Given the circumstances, backing the Hawks as small dogs is the play.
Pick: Hawks +1.5 (-110)
