Sunday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Jamal Murray Points, More
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jamal Murray
- Sunday's five-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Nuggets PG Jamal Murray, Bucks PF Ersan Ilyasova and Pacers PF Domantas Sabonis.
Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Sunday’s best props focus on two of the slate’s five games:
- Indiana Pacers at Houston Rockets: 7 p.m. ET
- Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets: 8 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Bucks PF Ersan Ilyasova
The Pick: Under 6.5 rebounds (-125)
Ilyasova has really boosted his rebound totals lately, going for seven, eight and nine over his past three games. So why should you bet the under here?
Well, he’s on the road on a brutal back-to-back in Denver, facing a Nuggets team that ranks second in offensive rebound rate and fifth in defensive rebound rate.
The Bucks should be tired after losing a tough overtime game on Saturday night against in the Clippers, so I like the unders on Milwaukee’s side.
The over has a Bet Quality of 10 in our FantasyLabs Player Prop tool and is one of my favorite wagers of the day. I’d play this up to -170.
Nuggets PG Jamal Murray
The Pick: Over 17.5 points (-125)
Denver’s last game was the Nikola Jokic game. The star center went off for 37 points and 21 rebounds in 33 minutes of action. After posting a low usage rate of 15.4% in the previous game against the Grizzlies, he used a stupid-high 41.1% of the Nuggets’ possessions against the Nets.
So, obviously, that will regress.
Murray had posted a 30.5% and 40.5% usage rate in the two prior games before Jokic’s outburst. Even with a lower role, Murray still scored 16 points in 40 minutes of action.
But more important than all of that: I think Sunday’s game against the Bucks sets up to be more of a Murray game than a Jokic game.
The Bucks rank first by a mile in limiting opponent shots at the rim. But they rank 28th in shots from beyond the arc. Milwaukee’s scheme prioritizes packing the paint and doesn’t mind letting outside shots. That should favor Murray. I’d play this to -170.
Pacers PF Domantas Sabonis
The Pick: Over 8.5 rebounds (-115)
Sabonis has averaged 9.75 rebounds over his past four games, during which he’s also seen an increase in minutes.
He’s a great rebounder — the rest of the Pacers aren’t, which helps — and there could certainly be some missed shots to gobble up in this one. The Rockets have ranked dead last in effective field goal rate this season, but they’re still first in the league with a huge 44.5% 3-point rate.
Further, the Pacers have allowed the second-highest percentage of 3-pointers in the league this season. James Harden and Co. are going to put up a ton of shots, and if the offenses continue to perform poorly, Sabonis should have plenty of chances to pull down boards. I like this to -140.