Nets vs Bucks Odds, Picks, Predictions | NBA Betting Preview (Thursday, March 21)

Here's everything you need to know about Nets vs. Bucks on Thursday, Mar. 21 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

Thursday night’s NBA showdown between the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks showcases two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum. The Nets, who are in a full rebuild, head to Milwaukee to take on a Larry O’Brien contender, which appears to be a mismatch on paper. However, we're more interested in which side will cover the double-digit spread.

The Nets have experienced a roller-coaster season, reflected in their 21st-ranked offensive rating and middling defensive rating (20th). Despite their challenges, the Nets have shown prowess in certain areas, notably ranking 11th in turnover percentage and 10th in offensive rebounding. Those stats show a team that struggles to score efficiently, but does well to retain possession and create second-chance points.

However, Brooklyn's 22nd rank in effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) and 25th rank in free-throw percentage shows the Nets struggle with shooting efficiency, a critical aspect that could hinder their performance against the defensively adept Bucks.

On the other side, the Bucks boast a potent offense. Milwaukee ranks fourth in both offensive rating and eFG%. This efficiency, coupled with a low turnover percentage (seventh) and an outstanding free-throw rate (fourth), underscores a Bucks team that executes its scoring opportunities among the best in the league. Of course, having superstars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard also helps.

Milwaukee’s offensive rebounding sits near the bottom of the league (27th), but its scoring efficiency seemingly compensates for the lack of second-chance points.

Defensively, the Bucks rank 19th in defensive rating and sixth in defensive rebounding, which shows their ability to close out possessions and secure the ball. However, their last-place ranking in forcing turnovers could be a loophole the Nets exploit to maintain possession and control pace.

The best bet in this game is taking the Bucks to cover the -9.5-point spread.

This recommendation is underpinned by the Bucks' offensive efficiency and home-court advantage, which hasn't historically played a significant role, but will against Brooklyn, one of the worst ATS teams in the league.

The Bucks' ability to score efficiently from both the field and the charity stripe positions them to capitalize on their possessions and build a sizable lead against the Nets, who have struggled with shooting efficiency throughout the season.

Furthermore, the Bucks' solid defensive rebounding will likely limit the Nets' second-chance points, further tilting the scales in favor of Milwaukee. While the Nets' lower turnover rate could help them keep the game close, the Bucks' overall offensive firepower and strong defense are likely to overpower Brooklyn.

The Nets are the fourth-worst team in the NBA this year ATS (44%) and are also the worst team ATS on the road (33%), so taking the Bucks to cover -9.5 is the best bet in this game.

Pick: Bucks -9.5

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