Nets vs Spurs Prediction, Picks & Odds | NBA Betting Preview (Sunday, March 17)

Here's everything you need to know about Nets vs. Spurs on Sunday, Mar. 17 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The San Antonio Spurs will wrap up their weekend in Austin, Texas, as they continue to expand their reach in a nearby market. Austin is one of the fastest-growing cities in the country, and if the Spurs can develop a footprint there, they could move from a bottom-four TV market size to one in the top 10.

Nets vs. Spurs tips off at 7 p.m. ET on NBA TV. The Spurs are 1.5-point favorites (-1.5) and the total is set at over/under 218 at FanDuel.

It certainly helps that the site for these games in Austin is the state-of-the-art Moody Center on the campus of the University of Texas. Mike Monroe reported that a raucous crowd of 16,222 fans were in attendance on Friday night to watch the Spurs take on the Denver Nuggets.

The Spurs lost the game 117-106 as they never fully recovered from a 19-point deficit after the first quarter. Sunday's matchup will undoubtedly be a step down in class, with the Spurs going from the reigning champion Nuggets to the Brooklyn Nets, who at 26-41 are currently outside the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference.

The Nets will also be on short rest as they're on the second leg of back-to-back games following a 121-100 road loss to the Pacers. This matchup with the Spurs is all about the situational spot, and I'll share why fading the Nets warrants some consideration.

With 15 games remaining in the season, the Nets trail the Hawks by 3.5 games for the final spot in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament. Brooklyn hasn't made up much ground on Atlanta, which is on a three-game losing streak.

After a promising 13-10 start to the campaign, the Nets are just 13-31 over their last 44 games. Point guard Ben Simmons was only available for 15 games, and he's already been shut down for the rest of the season due to a pinched nerve in his lower back.

According to GimmeTheDog.com, the Nets' Point Differential was +1 with Simmons on the court compared to -3.2 without him. From a betting perspective, Simmons clearly provided a boost, as the Nets went an impressive 11-4 against the spread (ATS) in the games he played. Without Simmons, Brooklyn's ATS mark drops to a poor 19-29-4.

There's plenty of turmoil surrounding this Nets team that fired their head coach, Jacque Vaughn, sooner than one year after giving him a contract extension through the 2026-27 season. Since the firing, the Nets are 5-8 and rank 25th in NBA.com's Offensive Rating with 109.1 points per 100 possessions.

Overall, the Nets rank 20th in Defensive Efficiency, and I've always felt that if you can't defend at a high level, you have to be at least able to score the basketball. Initially, I thought the Nets would improve following Kevin Ollie's appointment as interim head coach. However, Ollie might need a longer time frame if he's to turn this team around.

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Although the Spurs are just 14-53 on the season, their 33-34 ATS mark suggests that this team is still trying to compete. We've seen intermittent impressive displays over the last few weeks with victories over the Thunder, Pacers and Warriors.

The Spurs' biggest problem is consistency, but that shouldn't come as a surprise, considering they have the youngest team in the league, per Spotrac, with an average age of 22.7 years old.

Victor Wembenyama looks every bit the player he was hyped up to be, and he's a heavy favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award. While the Spurs have tried to be careful with his development, Wembenyama pushes to play more minutes to challenge himself and help his team.

The key for San Antonio in this game is to try and turn it into a track meet. A faster pace gives the Spurs more opportunities to be successful, especially if they're having a good shooting night.

We tend to see less variance when the game is played at a slower pace because, given their youth and inexperience, the Spurs often struggle in half-court sets. Brooklyn might be amenable to a faster pace, as according to TeamRankings, it averages more possessions on the road than at home.

The Spurs rank seventh in field goals attempted per game (90.7), and if we look at their performance since the All-Star Break, they're in the top half of the league's Offensive Rating at 113.2.

Given the Nets' recent offensive struggles and having to play on short rest, the Spurs stand a good chance to have the upper hand in this matchup.

The crowd at the Moody Center should give the Spurs an extra boost against a lesser opponent than the Nuggets, as I've got to think that San Antonio would want to leave Austin with at least a split, especially after losing both games in Austin last season.

Thus, this a very winnable game for the Spurs, given the situational spot.

It's worth noting that San Antonio opened as a one-point underdog, but it's now as high as a two-point favorite at one sportsbook.

There are two things we need to keep in mind for this matchup:

• The market has been outstanding in identifying optimal spots for San Antonio, as our Action Labs database shows that the Spurs are 13-6 (68.4%) ATS when they've been bet up this season.
• Brooklyn is also just 1-6-1 ATS as an underdog in a back-to-back spot.

Those numbers are simply too good to ignore. Given the short price, I recommend backing the Spurs on the BetRivers moneyline at odds of -122.

Pick: Spurs ML (-125)