Bucks vs Knicks Picks, Prediction Today | Best Bet For Dec. 23

Here's everything you need to know about Bucks vs. Knicks on Saturday, Dec. 23 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The rare duplex that will lead into Christmas.

I think that whichever side loses Saturday, will win on Christmas, which is to say, if we get our bet right, I'm flip-flopping on Christmas.

But first, Saturday the 23rd.

The Bucks are bad at perimeter defense, which makes the over/under — set at 241.5 — interesting.

The Bucks are pushing pace this season and would love to speed the Knicks up. New York is one of the slower teams in the league, although they're playing a bit faster without Mitchell Robinson, who is done for the season with an ankle injury.

For all the criticisms lobbed at Milwaukee, plenty of which are warranted, the Bucks are still 21-7 and second in the Eastern Conference.

The Bucks, though, are coming off a nine-game home stretch, in which they went 8-1, and the best team they beat during that stretch was probably the Knicks on December 5, in an In-Season Tournament knockout game. Milwaukee has won six straight as it begins a stretch of seven road games over the next two weeks, starting with two in New York, whom the Bucks are 2-0 against this season.

Key Numbers:

• The Bucks entered Friday's games first in true shooting percentage (61.4%), third in points per 100 possessions (121.1), fourth in pace (102.0) and sixth in net rating (+5.2).

Knicks Outlook

The Knicks have had spurts of success against the Bucks, but always appear to come up short for any number of reasons.

In their first encounter of the season (November 3), when Milwaukee won 110-105, Jalen Brunson exploded for 45 points, 29 of which were in the second half. Two issues …

1. The other Knicks didn't join in on the fun and shot a collective 21-for-66 (31.8%).
2. Damian Lillard went off in the fourth quarter and scored 15 points in the game's final nine minutes.

The Knicks head into these consecutive home games against the Bucks not long removed from the news of Robinson's season-ending injury. They're 16-11 and fifth in the Eastern Conference, but have been a ho-hum 4-4 on a near three-week stretch that began with a 146-122 loss in Milwaukee.

The Knicks were in that game until halftime, then the Bucks got hot from three. Julius Randle attempted to answer in the third, driving the ball up the floor and trying to match-up with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez and others. Lopez attempted to play one-on-one and settled for contested, turnaround jumpers. The box score would tell you he was sensational — 41 points on 14-of-19 shooting — but after a strong first half of scoring within the flow of the game, he disrupted it entirely in the third, effectively taking his teammates — who shot 47% from the field sans Randle in the first half — out of the game.

Key Numbers:

• The Knicks entered Friday's games first in offensive rebounds per 100 possessions (13.5) and third in rebounds per 100 possessions (47.3) — both will take hits after Robinson's injury. They're also fourth in opponent free throws per field goal attempt (.177), which is relevant given that the Bucks average the fourth-most free throws per field goal attempt (.234).

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This is largely a clash of styles, which I love as our resident boxing guy, because, as the saying goes, styles make fights.

I think the Bucks will win this round and I'm taking them at -2.5, which I'd play up to -3. I think Milwaukee will win, but I could see this being a one-possession nail biter.

Prop wise, I leaned on Brunson overs early in the season, but Randle's recent stretch makes me trepidatious, along with the fact that Brunson's gone over 24.5 points in two of his past nine games. Randle's been 27-9-5 for 12 games, and he'll crash at some point, but I'm staying away from both of them here.

For now, I like the Bucks at -2.5. And if they cover, I'm backing the Knicks on Christmas Day. If the Knicks pull this off, I'll be on the Bucks on Monday.

Pick: Bucks -2.5