Bucks vs Pacers Picks, Prediction | Best Bet for Thursday

Here's everything you need to know about Bucks vs Pacers on Thursday, Nov. 9 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

Two teams who are thriving offensively at the moment will collide in Indy on Thursday night as the Bucks meet the upstart Pacers. The visitors look to be settling in just fine after some roster turnover this offseason, while the Pacers' young core has taken another step forward this year. It's sure to be a hotly-contested game.

Let's get to our Bucks vs Pacers prediction and pick.

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Believe it or not, the top offense in the NBA is the Indiana Pacers. That's right, this young group has put up a whopping 121.2 points per 100 possessions, doing so against more than multiple groups that can play some defense. It's certainly no surprise given the personnel on this team; Tyrese Haliburton seems to improve with every month in the league and Bennedict Mathurin has always been a talented scorer. I think it's just surprising things have seemed to turn so quickly.

The Bucks have actually trailed behind the Pacers on both ends of the court, which isn't all that surprising considering Milwaukee has been middling defensively for years and has always relied on its offense, particularly in transition. What is a head-turner is the fact that the Bucks are marginally above average offensively, which is perhaps due to the fact that Damian Lillard is still trying to find his footing with his new team.

I think the Pacers will come out here and stun the Bucks at home, simply out-scoring them with what's been a better offense to this point.  The Bucks have actually been one of the worst teams in the league this year in transition, ranking fifth-worst in points per play, so I think it's fair to speculate as to how well this offense is playing at the moment.

Now, one complicating factor in the Bucks' inconsistent play on offense is the fact that Khris Middleton hasn't seen consistent minutes as the team continues to nurse him back to full health. Not only has he been prevented from playing back-to-backs, he's only seen 18.6 minutes on average and hasn't played more than 21 minutes in a game.

Middleton sat out in the Bucks' dramatic 120-118 win over the Pistons on Wednesday and is expected to be in the lineup on Thursday. Though he should see roughly 20 minutes again, the fact of the matter is that he's almost a non-factor with just 9.8 points per game on 31.3% shooting from deep.

Transition has always fueled the Bucks' high-octane offense with arguably one of the greatest transition players of all time in Giannis Antetokounmpo, but they've run less in transition this year and have performed shockingly on those plays. It could have something to do with the fact that Middleton has played less and Milwaukee swapped out Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard. Its shortcomings on defense certainly have something to do with that, too.

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The Pacers seem undeniable at the moment. It seems Tyrese Haliburton has improved even more in his fourth year, averaging a team-high 22.9 points to go along with 11.9 assists. It's been quite easy for him to rack up the helpers with Indiana shooting 39.9% from three, and Obi Toppin has combined with Myles Turner to drastically improve this team's frontcourt. Indiana has the personnel to stun many of the mainstays at the top of the East, including the Bucks.

On top of it all, at the risk of being a massive jinx, Indiana is injury-free and has been able to lean on its incredible depth to get the most out of its starters. That's helped them be a good team in transition and run at the second-fastest pace in the league. The Bucks, as noted above, love to push the tempo which should play right into Indiana's hands.

The Bucks may be 1-0 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back, but they're just 1-5-1 against the spread in total this year, laying points in each game. They've been a nightmare to back, and surely 20 minutes from Middleton isn't enough to sway my belief that Milwaukee will once again be in trouble on Thursday.

Indiana should thrive in what's sure to be an extremely up-tempo game, and with a solid defensive backcourt and better numbers both in transition and offensively in general, I would actually back this team to win in a shootout. Myles Turner should also be able to slow Antetokounmpo ever so slightly, and he should dominate down low against a team ranked 27th in rebounding rate.

Bet on the young upstarts to cover here against the resident beasts of the Eastern Conference.

Pick: Pacers +3 (-110)

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