The Houston Rockets (30-17) and Indiana Pacers (13-36) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The game will broadcast live on FDSIN.
The Rockets are 6-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread (Rockets -5.5), with the over/under set at 219 total points. Houston is a -245 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Indiana is +200 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Rockets vs. Pacers predictions and NBA picks for Monday, February 2.
Rockets vs Pacers Prediction, Picks
- Rockets vs Pacers pick: Aaron Nesmith Under 13.5 Points (-120)
My Pacers vs Rockets best bet is on Aaron Nesmith to score under 13.5 points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Rockets vs Pacers Odds
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 219 -110o / -110u | -245 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 219 -110o / -110u | +200 |
Rockets vs Pacers NBA Preview
Tonight's matchup between the Rockets and Pacers presents an interesting spot in the player prop market. That said, this is not a wager to rush. It’s better to wait until closer to tipoff to avoid any unexpected trade-related news.
The Pacers are a team that could theoretically make a move, and while it’s very unlikely they would send Pascal Siakam anywhere, Bennedict Mathurin may be on the table.
That matters here because Mathurin returned about three games ago, and since then, Nesmith’s usage has really dropped. With Mathurin back in the lineup, Nesmith’s usage rate has fallen below 15% in those games.
For the season, he’s been over 20%, so that is a very meaningful gap.
That usage decline is being masked right now by Nesmith’s recent scoring. In those same three games, he scored 18 points, 14 points and 23 points. The reason he got there was shooting variance.
He went 9-for-15 from three-point range, which is not something you can expect to continue. Even with those scoring lines, he still averaged only about 10 field goal attempts per game during that stretch.
Now, he draws a very tough matchup against the Rockets’ defense.
The spread in this game is relatively tight, which suggests the market trusts a healthy Pacers team to compete against a Rockets squad that has struggled at times.
However, this doesn’t need to be a blowout for Nesmith to go under. His minutes don’t have to be reduced for this bet to cash.
With limited usage and modest shot volume, the path to the under is already there.
Rockets vs Pacers Predictions, Betting Analysis
From a game environment standpoint, this is also a matchup that has leaned toward the under recently.
What’s surprising is that this points prop is essentially the same number Nesmith had in his last game.
It feels like the line is hiding in plain sight because of those strong shooting performances.
If you simply regress his shooting back toward what you would normally expect, his scoring projection drops well below this range, especially when you factor in the defensive matchup.
Pick: Aaron Nesmith Under 13.5 Points (-120)
Spread
I'm not betting either side of the spread in this game.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline as well.
Over/Under
My Pacers vs. Rockets betting prediction is on Aaron Nesmith under 13.5 points at -120.
Pacers vs Rockets Betting Trends
